Gold prices dropped as confusion over Greece's debt negotiations with its European lenders dominated markets.

DATE: 13 FEB-2015

Gold prices dropped as confusion over Greece's debt negotiations with its European lenders dominated markets.

MCX Apr Gold futures continued to maintain it’s down bias by violating its rising trend-line support at 26680 levels. Now the outlook remains weak and further fall can be seen towards 61.8% Fibonacci level of 26332 levels. Hence, any rise can be limited at 26585 and bring some selling pressure from the same.

Action	Entry	Target	stop
SELL	Around 26585	26410	26670

Gold remains flat as confusion over Greece's debt negotiations with its European lenders dominated markets. Financial markets had been under pressure as euro zone finance ministers were unable to agree with Greece a final statement or a way to continue talks until their next meeting on Monday to extend an international bailout. Gold's sell-off for much of this week, despite the Greek debt crisis, suggests that markets are either expecting an ultimately positive result, or they may be discounting the country's possible exit as a net positive. An interest rates hike by the U.S. central bank, which has kept rates near zero since 2008 to stimulate the U.S. economy, could further strengthen the dollar and in turn hurt demand for bullion, a non-interest-bearing asset . India is likely to remain the world's biggest gold consumer this year after regaining the top spot from China in 2014, driven by robust jewellery demand, the World Gold Council (WGC) said. Indian consumer demand for gold jewellery and investment totalled 842.7 tonnes last year, compared with 813.6 tonnes by China, according to WGC data. Demand dipped in both countries in 2014 from record levels a year earlier, but Indian demand slid only 14 percent, compared with a much steeper 38 percent fall in China. The two countries accounted for over half of global demand. Global gold demand also hit a five-year low last year as buying of jewellery, coins and bars failed to keep pace with 2013's elevated levels, the WGC said. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.73% to settled at 8705, now Gold is getting support at 26418 and below same could see a test of 26317 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 26710, a move above could see prices testing 26901.

Silver prices remained dropped as European leaders failed to agree on Greece’s bailout program after talks in Brussels

Silver can move in range of 36800-37800 in MCX.

Action	Entry	Target	stop
SELL	Around 37550	36950	37850

 Silver prices remained in the range as European leaders failed to agree on Greece’s bailout program after talks in Brussels. Prices rose earlier after more stimulus from the Swedish central bank. The Riksbank lowered its repo rate to minus 0.10 percent from zero and said it will also make policy “more expansionary” by soon buying 10 billion kronor ($1.2 billion) in government bonds with maturities of one to five years. Core retail sales, which exclude automobile sales, slumped by 0.9% in December, disappointing forecasts for a 0.4% decline. Rising retail sales over time correlate with stronger economic growth, while weaker sales signal a declining economy. Core sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of the government's gross domestic product report. Consumer spending accounts for as much as 70% of U.S. economic growth. At the same time, the U.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending February 7 increased by 25,000 to 304,000 from the previous week’s revised total of 279,000. The disappointing data scaled back expectations that the Federal Reserve will start raising rates from near zero levels as early as June. The U.S. dollar came under broad selling pressure as expectations grew the Federal Reserve would keep its loose monetary policy. Dollar weakness has been fueling the rally in gold as economic uncertainties and speculation on more monetary easing by central banks drive investors to bullion as an alternative investment. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.24% to settled at

Crude oil gained as a weakened dollar and industry spending cuts offset worries of a supply glut.

Demand is increasing and there are indications that prices are stabilizing, according to Saudi Arabia’s Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi.

Action	Entry	Target	stop
BUY	Around 3230	3420	3100

Crude oil futures climbed on Thursday, arresting a two-session losing streak, as industry spending cuts and a weaker dollar spurred buying. U.S. March crude futures closed up $2.37, or 4.9 percent, at $51.21 a barrel, after falling more than 2 percent in the previous session. Volatility in the oil market has jumped to the highest level since the financial crisis, with prices swinging in a wide range this month following the near 60 percent crash between June and January. Natural gas may trade on volatile path as its prices can move in range of 166-174 in MCX. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported Thursday morning that U.S. natural gas stocks decreased by 160 billion cubic feet for the week ending February 6. Estimates called for drawdown of 166 billion to 170 billion cubic feet.

Production rose by 49,000 barrels a day to 9.23 million a day, according to the Energy Department’s statistical arm. That’s the highest level in weekly data that started in January 1983. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.61% to settled at 21987 while prices up 95 rupee, now Crudeoil is getting support at 3100 and below same could see a test of 3029 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 3220, a move above could see prices testing 3269.

Copper prices gained as investors cheered reports of a cease-fire agreement between Russia and Ukraine

Base metals may trade sideways with firm bias as investors will eye euro zone GDP and Michigan consumer confidence data later today.

Action	Entry	Target	stop
SELL	Around 360	353.5	363.3

Base metals may trade sideways with firm bias as investors will eye euro zone GDP and Michigan consumer confidence data later today. Copper may trade in range of 352-360 while Lead may move in range of 113-114. Aluminum may move in range of 113-115. Nickel may move in range of 910-930 in MCX. Zinc may move in range of 132-134. Copper futures have closed higher on the London Metal Exchange, boosted by higher risk-taking appetite following a deal to end Ukraine's conflict with Russian-backed separatists in the east of the country. The rally in base metals was spurred by the successful resolution of talks in Minsk between Russia and Ukraine, which resulted in a ceasefire agreement being struck with Russia-backed separatists.

Copper prices gained as investors cheered reports of a cease-fire agreement between Russia and Ukraine. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.13% to settled at 13146, now Copper is getting support at 352.6 and below same could see a test of 347.4 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 361.3, a move above could see prices testing 364.8.

DON'T RUN AFTER GOLD LIKE USAIN BOLT

COMMODITY MARKET INSIGHT

DATE: 12 FEB-2015

DON'T RUN AFTER GOLD LIKE USAIN BOLT

Gold prices eased on Tuesday as a rise in the dollar offset the supportive impact of concerns over Greece's future in the euro zone and fears over escalating violence in Ukraine, which hurt risk appetite. Jeffrey Lacker, a top U.S. Federal Reserve official, told reporters on Tuesday that the central bank should raise interest rates in June. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker told Greece not to expect the euro zone to bow to Tsipras' demands in a growing confrontation that has rattled financial markets and prompted U.S. and Canadian pleas for calm and compromise. On the main physical markets for gold, premiums over spot prices on the Shanghai Gold Exchange contracted slightly ahead of next week's Lunar New Year holiday, MKS said in a note on Tuesday, but remained between $2.50-3.50, showing demand has emerged at lower levels.

Bullion counter can witness range bound movement with negative bias tracking weak international markets. Gold can move in range of 26500-26800 and silver can move in range of 37000-38000 in MCX. On domestic bourses weak local currency can support the prices. Gold futures on Wednesday marked their lowest close in about a month as some investors lost interest in the metal on the back of a stronger U.S. dollar. Investors awaited the outcome of a meeting of euro zone finance ministers on Greece's debt obligations to help gauge the next move for financial markets. Euro zone finance ministers met in Brussels on Wednesday to decide Greece's financial fate. Uncertainty over Greece has provided some support for gold in recent days as investors seek out safer bets. Investors ignored the geopolitical headwinds regarding Greece's bailout negotiations and broader worries that the global economy is being buffeted by deflation. We expect gold prices are likely to trade negative on the back of US interest rate outlook.

Silver was down 0.6 percent at $16.91 an ounce. Greece and its euro zone partners engaged in brinkmanship on Monday, with leftist Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras insisting his country would not extend its reform-linked bailout and Germany saying it would get no more money without such a programme. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker warned Greeks not to expect the euro zone to bow to Tsipras' demands in a growing confrontation which spooked financial markets and prompted U.S. and Canadian pleas for calm and compromise. We expect Silver prices are likely to trade negative on the back of US interest rate outlook.

Crude oil prices fell for the first time in four sessions on Tuesday after the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that ample supplies will raise global inventories before investment cuts begin to significantly dent production. Oil stockpiles in member countries of the Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) may approach a record 2.83 billion barrels by mid-2015, said the IEA, advisor on energy policy to a group of Western nations. The IEA also predicted that demand for oil from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will hold at 29.4 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, and said U.S. shale oil output growth will pause before regaining momentum. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) added to the bearish sentiment in its report on Tuesday that kept its 2015 and 2016 domestic oil production expectations virtually unchanged from the previous month. U.S. crude stocks rose 1.6 million barrels to 413.7 million last week, industry group the American Petroleum Institute (API) said late Tuesday.

Crude oil may open move with negative bias in range of 3020-3150 in near term. Oil tumbled for the second day in a row, with the U.S. benchmark slipping back below $50 a barrel, after a government report showed U.S. crude stockpiles reached a new record high. Oil prices have shown signs of stability in the past two weeks after plunging to nearly six-year lows last month amid a global supply glut. News of oil companies cutting back on investment and a reduction in drilling activity are setting the stage for a slowdown in oil-output growth, especially in the U.S., in the second half of the year, analysts and market experts say. Optimism that the glut could ease has supported prices. U.S. crude stockpiles rose by a slightly bigger-than-expected 4.9 million barrels to 417.9 million barrels in the week ended Feb. 6, according to the EIA. Natural gas may continue its short covering as today EIA inventory data will give further direction to the prices. Overall its prices can hover in range of 170-180 in MCX. We expect crude oil prices likely to remain volatile on concerns that falling U.S. oil rig counts may rein in a market glut

Copper fell on Tuesday as worries over China's economic growth and the outlook for demand resurfaced, though losses were limited by supply disruptions. China's annual consumer inflation hit a five-year low in January, underscoring persistent economic weakness after the country's trade performance slumped in January. The data adds pressure on policymakers to support growth, though China's central bank said it will fine-tune policy to head off a slowdown but avoid overstimulating the economy. Data on Monday showed China's imports tumbled 19.9 percent in January, far worse than expected. However, copper has lost 11 percent of its value this year after a 14 percent drop last year, leading some analysts to say that the bad news is probably priced in for now. Chile's Collahuasi mine, meanwhile, will operate at less than half capacity until Friday at least because of maintenance work. We expect base metal prices to trade mixed on the back of short term shortage and long term surplus is likely to keep base metal prices mixed. Base metals may trade sideways with weak bias as investors will eye US advance retail sales and euro zone industrial production data for further direction. Copper may trade in range of 347-355 while Lead may move in range of 111-113. Aluminum may move in range of 112-114. Nickel may move in range of 910-932 in MCX. Zinc may move in range of 131-133. Copper steadied on Wednesday as some investors bet that a floor had been reached after heavy losses, while tin touched a fresh 2-1/2 year low on worries about weak demand. European stocks and the euro fell as euro zone meetings on the Greek debt crisis threatened to give rise to confusion rather than clarity. Gains were capped as physical demand in top metals consumer China was still soft and sentiment bearish ahead of the Chinese New Year. Everybody is just waiting for after the Lunar new year holidays to see how demand will do.

MCX GOLD MAY FALL IN SHORT TERM The gold future contract traded on the mcx has tumbled over 3% in the4 past week. The strong us job data released on fridat triggered a sharp sell off in the global sopt gold at $1242.

COMMODITY MARKET INSIGHT

DATE: 11 FEB-2015

MCX GOLD MAY FALL IN SHORT TERM

The gold future contract traded on the mcx has tumbled over 3% in the4 past week. The strong us job data released on fridat triggered a sharp sell off in the global sopt gold at $1242.

The global spot gold has decisvely broken its 200 day moving agerge at $1251. It also has a key rasistance at $1260. So any bounce the price could be thewarted by these rasistance levels. A fall to $1200 looks likely in the short term. On the domestic front the mcx gold future contract has inches up and is trading near 26833/10gm. The contract lack momentum and is expected to remain under pressure . immediate rasistance is the 26960 and then at 27060 the 200 DMA levels. Rallies to these rasiatance could attract fresh selling interest. The outlook is bearish. A break below the immediate support 26780 can trigger a fall to 26600 or even 26000 in the coming days.

Traders with short term perspective can go short at current levels. The downside pressure will ease only if the mcx gold future contract record a strong break and close above 27500. But such a strong rise looks unlikely in the near term.

Brent crude oil advanced after OPEC cut its forcaste for us crude production this year as lower prices curb drilling. The organization of petrolium exporting countries said non OPEC supply growth in 2015 will be 850,000 barrels a day down 420000 barrels from the prevous forcaste led by a reduction of 130000 barrels a day in the us.

Copper fall on Tuesday as wories over china’s economic growth resufaced though losses were limited by supply disruptive. Three month copper on the LME traded down 1.6 % in oficia mid day rings to $5580 a tonne. On the mcx if copper is giving good demant  it could be be get the copper prices up and can be break the level of 357, then next rasistance would be at 361. Rest of metal on mcx is likely looking down as lead, nickel, alumunium, zinc are down in LME as also down in mcx market .

In the crude, still slow down , due this fall natural gas on mcx is still rising , on the day of 11^th feb, natural gas is trading around 173, while  upcoming rasistance is at 174, 177, so this is good time to buy natural gas for short term for the target of 185.