NIFTY OUTLOOK, 18TH JAN, 2016

Market Outlook  18 January 2016 (based on Index futures)
Nifty January futures (7446.25) (-94.3): Nifty future surrendered all the gains of the previous day and more as it closed the day in the negative. The low of 7428 posted 2 days earlier, however, held on and some bounce back may be expected if this level is not breached. A breach of this support will lead to further sell off and it may then slide to levels below 7400. 7500, 7530, 7590 are important resistance for now and must be decisively taken out for any semblance of stability. Resistance: 7480, 7500, 7530, 7590-7600, 7625, 7660, 7690-7700 Support: 7430, 7400, 7375, 7345, 7300, 7240, 7220, 7200 Bank Nifty January futures (15204.25)(-384.15):  Bank Nifty futures edged further down once the critical support around 15435 was decisively taken out in the latter half of the last session and it closed the day deep in the red. 15485-15435 will now prove to be a major supply zone on pull backs. 15050-15000 is the next important support region and if this region holds on dips, a weak pull back may be expected. If, however, this region is also breached, fresh panic offloading by the bulls may take place as bears tighten their already firm grip. On the higher side, 15300-15360 is the immediate resistance and above that, bulls need to absorb the supply in the 15435-15485 region, for signalling any meaningful pull back and halt in further erosion. Resistance: 15300, 15360, 15435, 15485, 15500, 15600, 15630, 15690-15700 Support: 15200, 15150, 15100, 15050, 15000, 14935, 14900, 14840, 14730, 14660 --------------------------------------- ADAM CAPITAL FINANCIAL SERVICES DIVISION OF TRADING AND RESEARCH WWW.ADAMCAPITALFINANCIAL.COM

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK, 18 JAN 2016

Dear Customer,

 

Markets always tend to be interesting with something or the other happening all the time. Our Morning Mantra is released before the opening bell and it includes the market commentary along with Corporate & Global news for the day.

 

• U.S. stocks. were lower after the close on Friday, as losses in the Technology, Oil & Gas and Basic Materials sectors led shares lower. At the close in NYSE, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.39% to hit a new 3-months low, while the S&P 500 index lost 2.16%, and the NASDAQ Composite index lost 2.74%.

 

Dow	15988.1	-391.0	-2.39%
Dow Futures	15941.0	+29.0	+0.18%
Hangseng	19226.1	-294.7	-1.51%
Nikkie	16814.1	-333.0	-1.94%
SGX Nifty	7425.0	-16.0	-0.22%

 

• Asian stocks slid to their lowest levels since late 2011 on Monday after weak U.S. economic data and massive falls in oil prices stoked further worries about a global economic downturn. Oil prices fell as much as 4% on Monday, with international benchmark Brent futures falling below $28 per barrel, touching their lowest level since 2003.
• Market is likely to open on flattish note and expected to remain range bound during the day.
• Wockhardt’s Shendra plant has got 483s with 9 observations. Though Shendra plant doesn’t supply anything to US as of now, wockhardt has some key filings from this plant. This puts on hold the company’s hope of getting the approval for US soon. It also increases unpredictability about the future of its other key plants – Waluj and Chilkthana. Negative for the company
• Dalmia Bharat is buying 15% stake of KKR in Dalmia Cement Bharat Ltd for 600 cr. KKR will become shareholder in Dalmia Cement ltd by subscribing to 7.5 mln shares at Rs. 825 per share. Thus Dalmia Bharat Ltd will now hold 100% stake in Dalmia Cement Bharat Ltd.
• MT Educare Board meeting will be held on Jan 20 to consider raising Fund by way of QIP
• United Spirits   plans to divest its entire stake in subsidiary United Spirits Nepal Pvt Ltd, to an existing investor, for Nepalese Rs 34.14 cr.
• Adani’s Hazira Port, has been fined with Rs. 25 cr by the National Green Tribunal. This was for carrying out work in Haizra based port near Surat without clearance.
• TPG capital, Partners capital are in the race to buy ICICI Home finance, arm of ICICI Bank. Bids are in the range of Rs2,700-2800cr below the ICICI bank expectation of Rs.4000 cr..
• Axis bank buys 2 lakh sq.ft of office space in Dadar, Mumbai for Rs. 320 cr.
• Maruti Suzuki plans to hikes prices effective 16^th January across models by Rs.1000-4000
• HPCL gets environmental clearance to expand Vizag refinery to 15 mtpa from 8.3 mtpa.
• SBI plans to raise Rs.15000 cr through public  offers and other means by March 2017.        

 

 

 

• Results Announced

Zee Entertainment Enterprises Ltd	Result ahead of Exp Lower PAT is on account of lower other income and higher Tax Net sales came at Rs. 1595.5 Cr vs exp Rs. 1449.87 Cr vs qoq Rs. 1384.9 Cr vs yoy Rs. 1363.72 Cr EBIDTA came at Rs. 430.9 Cr vs exp Rs. 402.05 Cr vs qoq Rs. 354.63 Cr vs yoy Rs. 353.3 Cr Adj. PAT came at Rs. 275 Cr vs exp Rs. 303.66Cr vs qoq Rs. 270.1 Cr vs yoy Rs. 308.61 Cr
Network 18 Media & Investment Ltd	Result  improved Net sales came at Rs. 899.68 Cr vs qoq Rs. 795.105 Cr vs yoy Rs. 819.283 Cr EBIDTA came at Rs. 85.67 Cr Cr vs qoq Rs. 19.204 Cr vs yoy Rs. 67.127 Cr Adj. PAT came at loss of Rs. 2.41 Cr vs qoq  loss of Rs. 27.42 Cr vs yoy loss of Rs. 9.75 Cr
TV18 Broadcast Ltd.	Result good Net sales came at Rs. 692.419 Cr vs qoq Rs. 608.534 Cr vs yoy Rs. 607.23 Cr EBIDTA came at Rs. 103.88 Cr Cr vs qoq Rs. 37.555 Cr vs yoy Rs. 79.383 Cr Adj. PAT came at Rs. 78.286 Cr vs qoq Rs. 20.266 Cr vs yoy Rs. 60.38 Cr
LIC Housing Finance	Result is inline with expectation NII came at 747cr vs Exp 728cr qoq 717cr yoy 549cr Profit before Provisioning came at 680cr vs Exp 686cr qoq 674cr yoy 528cr PAT came at 419cr vs Exp 413cr qoq 412cr yoy 344cr
Oberoi Realty Ltd	Result were inline with estimate. Net sales came at Rs. 778.88 Cr vs exp Rs. 600.77 Cr vs qoq Rs. 187.61 Cr vs yoy Rs. 215.73 Cr. EBIDTA came at Rs. 327.81 Cr vs exp Rs. 364.8 Cr vs qoq Rs. 109.04 Cr vs yoy Rs. 126.55 Cr. Adj. PAT came at Rs. 209.35 Cr vs exp Rs. 204.3143 Cr vs qoq Rs. 72.44 Cr vs yoy Rs. 79.23 Cr. On the real estate segment, OBL reported EBIT margin of 42.2% in Dec2015, as compared to 58.9% in Sept 2015 and 62% in Dec2014. On the hospitality segment, OBL report EBIT margin of 18.1% in Dec2015, as compared to 15.2% in sept 2015 and 15.5% in dec2014.
NIIT Technologies Ltd.	Result inline Net sales came at Rs. 678.7 Cr vs exp Rs. 694 Cr vs qoq Rs. 677.9 Cr vs yoy Rs. 595.3 Cr EBIDTA came at Rs. 123.5 Cr vs exp Rs. 121 Cr vs qoq Rs. 119.4 Cr vs yoy Rs. 86.2 Cr Adj. PAT came at Rs. 74.2 Cr vs exp Rs. 71.1 Cr vs qoq Rs. 68.2 Cr vs yoy Rs. 48.2 Cr
Gruh Finance	Result ok NII came at Rs. 120.2 Cr vs YoY Rs. 97.5 Cr, QoQ Rs. 113.1 Cr PBP came at Rs. 99.7 Cr vs YoY Rs. 81.8 Cr, QoQ Rs. 87.4 Cr PAT came at Rs. 53.7 Cr vs YoY Rs. 44.7 Cr, QoQ Rs. 51.7 Cr
Jay Bharat Maruti	Result ok Sales came at 298cr vs qoq 312cr yoy 284cr EBITDA came at 28.3cr vs qoq 29.9cr yoy 24.9cr PAt came at 9.8cr vs qoq 9.9cr yoy 10.9cr Qtr EPS came at Rs.4.52 Share is trading at 8 PE Q3 annualized EPS
The Indian Hotels Company Ltd.	Result is ok Net sales came at Rs. 1308.97 Cr vs  qoq Rs. 1020.58 Cr vs yoy Rs. 1206.88 Cr EBIDTA came at Rs. 266 Cr vs  qoq Rs. 61.7 Cr vs yoy Rs. 238.2 Cr Adj. PAT came at Rs. 63.5 Cr (after adjusting exceptional Rs 53.4 cr) vs qoq Rs. -37.6 Cr (adjusted exceptional item of Rs 16.1 cr) vs yoy Rs. 79.1 Cr (exceptional item Rs 17.3 cr) PAT was  lower yoy on account of higher interest cost Quarter EPS is Rs 0.12
Muthoot Capital Services Ltd.	Result ok Net sales came at Rs. 57.83 Cr vs qoq Rs. 56.39 Cr, yoy Rs. 47.19 Cr PAT came at Rs. 6.06 Cr vs qoq Rs. 6.18 Cr, yoy Rs. 5.34 Cr
Wipro Ltd	Result  marginally below Expectation but guidance for next quarter is ok Dollar revenue  came at Rs. 1838.3 Cr vs exp Rs. 1844.25 Cr vs qoq Rs. 1831.9 Cr vs yoy Rs. 1795.4 Cr Constant currency growth came at 1.4% qoq Net sales came at Rs. 12860.5 Cr vs exp Rs. 12827.7543 Cr vs qoq Rs. 12513.5 Cr vs yoy Rs. 11992.9 Cr PBIT came at Rs. 2296.3 Cr vs exp Rs. 2415.8375 Cr vs qoq Rs. 2375.6 Cr vs yoy Rs. 2311.2 Cr Adj. PAT came at Rs. 2243 Cr vs exp Rs. 2237.99 Cr vs qoq Rs. 2235.4 Cr vs yoy Rs. 2192.8 Cr Share is trading at 13.39x  PE
Ushdev Interantional	Result declining
Pipavav Defence and Offshore Engineering Company Ltd	Result declining Net sales came at Rs. 49.89 Cr vs qoq Rs. 51.66 Cr vs yoy Rs. 250.96 Cr. Core Ship building revenue  came at Rs.50cr vs yoy 149cr EBIDTA loss came at Rs. 127.03 Cr vs qoq loss of Rs. 7.39 Cr vs yoy profit of Rs. 44.01 Cr. Adj. Loss came at Rs. -293.60 Cr vs qoq loss of Rs. 170.22 Cr vs yoy loss of Rs. 70.22 Cr.
Karnataka Bank	Result declining  NII came at 305cr vs qoq 307cr yoy 302cr PBP came at 192cr vs qoq 169cr yoy 183cr Provision came at 63cr vs qoq 35cr yoy 79cr PAT came at 97cr vs qoq 102cr yoy 107cr GNPA came higher at 1186cr vs qoq 1044cr qoq growth of 13.7% yoy 1054cr NNPA came at 791cr vs qoq 635cr yoy 727cr fresh Slippage came much higher at 381cr vs qoq 150cr yoy 283cr and Restructured Book also increased qoq from 2195cr to 2335cr. Share is trading at P/Adj BV of 0.61x and trailing PE of 4.
Hindustan Unilever Ltd.	Result is marginally below expectations Net sales came at Rs. 7822.9 Cr vs expectation of Rs. 8091.8 Cr, QoQ Rs. 7819.6 Cr, YoY Rs. 7579.2 Cr though volume growth came in line with expectation of 6% EBIDTA came at Rs. 1430.8 Cr vs expectation of Rs. 1437.8 Cr, QoQ Rs. 1325.9 Cr, YoY Rs. 1331.5 Cr Adj. PAT came at Rs. 971 Cr vs expectation of Rs. 1026.5 Cr, QoQ Rs. 962.2 Cr, YoY Rs. 1252.2 Cr Volume growth is 6% vs expectation of 6-7%. Last quarter it was also 6% Quarter EPS is Rs 4.5 Share is trading at 34.4x FY17 PE

 

 

• Results  to be announced: (PAT Rs cr)

18-Jan	Dec'14	Sept'15	Exp	NB Insti
Asian Paints Ltd.	368.2	399.0	453.5	na
Bharat Bijlee Ltd.	-4.1	0.7	na	na
Bhandari Hosiery Exports Ltd.	0.2	2.0	na	na
Delta Corp Ltd.	-0.4	6.5	na	na
Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Ltd.	-118.0	0.5	na	na
Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd.	716.6	941.9	620.0	na
Mindtree Ltd.	140.8	158.2	156.1	na
Rallis India Ltd.	25.5	57.3	27.5	na
Sical Logistics Ltd.	4.2	1.8	na	na
Tata Metaliks Ltd.	19.3	21.5	na	na
Tinplate Company Of India Ltd.	6.9	21.1	na	na
TTK Prestige Ltd.	28.1	34.0	35.6	na
Veto Switchgears & Cables Ltd.	0.0	2.4	na	na

 

19-Jan	Dec'14	Sept'15	Exp	NB Insti
HCL Technologies Ltd.	1915.0	1823.0	1802.1	1727.7