MCX GOLD MAY FALL IN SHORT TERM The gold future contract traded on the mcx has tumbled over 3% in the4 past week. The strong us job data released on fridat triggered a sharp sell off in the global sopt gold at $1242.

COMMODITY MARKET INSIGHT

DATE: 11 FEB-2015

MCX GOLD MAY FALL IN SHORT TERM

The gold future contract traded on the mcx has tumbled over 3% in the4 past week. The strong us job data released on fridat triggered a sharp sell off in the global sopt gold at $1242.

The global spot gold has decisvely broken its 200 day moving agerge at $1251. It also has a key rasistance at $1260. So any bounce the price could be thewarted by these rasistance levels. A fall to $1200 looks likely in the short term. On the domestic front the mcx gold future contract has inches up and is trading near 26833/10gm. The contract lack momentum and is expected to remain under pressure . immediate rasistance is the 26960 and then at 27060 the 200 DMA levels. Rallies to these rasiatance could attract fresh selling interest. The outlook is bearish. A break below the immediate support 26780 can trigger a fall to 26600 or even 26000 in the coming days.

Traders with short term perspective can go short at current levels. The downside pressure will ease only if the mcx gold future contract record a strong break and close above 27500. But such a strong rise looks unlikely in the near term.

Brent crude oil advanced after OPEC cut its forcaste for us crude production this year as lower prices curb drilling. The organization of petrolium exporting countries said non OPEC supply growth in 2015 will be 850,000 barrels a day down 420000 barrels from the prevous forcaste led by a reduction of 130000 barrels a day in the us.

Copper fall on Tuesday as wories over china’s economic growth resufaced though losses were limited by supply disruptive. Three month copper on the LME traded down 1.6 % in oficia mid day rings to $5580 a tonne. On the mcx if copper is giving good demant  it could be be get the copper prices up and can be break the level of 357, then next rasistance would be at 361. Rest of metal on mcx is likely looking down as lead, nickel, alumunium, zinc are down in LME as also down in mcx market .

In the crude, still slow down , due this fall natural gas on mcx is still rising , on the day of 11^th feb, natural gas is trading around 173, while  upcoming rasistance is at 174, 177, so this is good time to buy natural gas for short term for the target of 185.