DAILY NIFTY OUTLOOK, 30TH OCT,2015

Market Outlook  30 October 2015 (based on Index futures)
Nifty November futures (8114.1)(-59.5): The October series ended on a weak note as Nifty future breached the 8130 support but the last citadel of bulls, the 8100-8090 region is still holding and once this level too is taken out, fresh offloading is likely as the bears will tighten their grip. If, however, this level holds some recovery is likely and Nifty future must initially sustain decisively above 8130 and then take out the 8200 level decisively for any semblance of bullishness at this stage.. Resistance: 8130, 8155, 8170, 8200, 8220, 8255, 8280, 8300 Support: 8105, 8085, 8058, 8020, 7995, 7950, 7897-7900 --------------------------------------- Bank Nifty November Futures (17222.4) (-192.6): Bank nifty future lost further grounds and closed the October series on a weak note. End of session saw fresh offering so chances are that it may open the November series on a weak note too. 17200-17195 is the immediate and important support for now and a decisive breach of this level will see fresh offloading which may take it down to the 17000 level with some support at 17120-17100. On the higher side, 17310 is the immediate resistance but it must sustain, initially above 17356 and then above 17440, 17500, 17560 for signalling that it is on the path to recovery. Resistance: 17310, 17356, 17440, 17500, 17560, 17620, 17692-17700, 17742, 17772, 17800 Support: 17200- 17195, 17120, 17080, 17050, 17000-16990, 16920-16900, 16845, 16750 ---------------------------------------

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK, 30TH OCT, 15

Dear Customer,

 

Markets always tend to be interesting with something or the other happening all the time. Our Morning Mantra is released before the opening bell and it includes the market commentary along with Corporate & Global news for the day.

 

• U.S. stocks closed lower Thursday, but mostly held the prior day's rally, as investors continued to consider the possibility of a December rate hike and eyed earnings.

Dow Jones	17755.8	-23.72	-0.13%
Dow Jones Fut	17742.0	58.00	0.33%
Hangseng	22710.9	-109.02	-0.48%
Nikkie	18907.6	-28.11	-0.15%
SGX Nifty	8135.0	+1.50	+0.02%

 

• Asian stocks stayed on track for their biggest monthly gain in five years as investors awaited a Bank of Japan decision on monetary policy.
• US Q3 (Sep qtr) GDP came at 1.5% vs exp 1.6% qoq 3.9%
• No change in Bank of Japan QE plan Retained at 80T
• Market is expected to open on flattish note and likely to witness bounce back during the day.
• HCL Technologies has acquired PowerObjects, a Microsoft Dynamics customer resource management solution, for $46 million, to bolster its offerings in the applications development space. 
• Cipla said it would sell its 25% stake in Biomab Holding, a Hong Kong company that makes biosimilar drugs for the Chinese market, for nearly $26 million.
• Sonata Software to acquire IBIS for $14mn 
• "Rashtriya Chemical Fertilizers Limited have entered into a JV Agreement on October 27, 2015 with Coal India Limited, GAIL and Fertilizer Corporation of India Limited for incorporation of a company namely viz. "RASHTRIYA COAL GAS FERTILIZERS LIMITED" to establish and operate new coal gasification based Fertilizer Complex (Ammonia Urea Complex) at Talcher, Odisha along with power plant and associated facilities at Talcher unit of FCIL and to market its products."
• Institution Desk- Automobile Sales Estimate October 2015- Monthly Sales Estimate- Festive Cheer Likely: Automobile sales in October 2015 are largely seen growing YoY and MoM as it is a festive month. Most original equipment manufacturers or OEMs are believed to have despatched higher vehicles because of Dussera festival this month and Diwali festival early next month. Also, the festive season this year is a month late compared to last year and therefore the base will also be slightly favourable. Most OEMs in the two-wheeler/car segments have launched new models ahead of the festive season and we expect despatches of such models to drive sales growth in October 2015.
• Institution Desk - Just Dial- BUY- 2QFY16 Result Update- Poor Operating Margin, But Higher Other Income Lifts PAT: With 18.1%/0.8% YoY/QoQ growth in paid listings, respectively, Just Dial’s (JDL) revenue in 2QFY16 grew 16.2% to Rs1,713mn, 6%/6.1% below our/bloomberg estimates. Operating margin (after adjusting for ESOP expenses of Rs72.1mn) declined 360bps to 27.4%, 460bps/90bps below our/Bloomberg consensus estimates, respectively. Following very high other income, up 209% at Rs263mn, adjusted net profit grew by a healthy 54.6% to Rs520.5mn compared to our/Bloomberg consensus estimates of Rs400mn/Rs388mn, respectively. Historically, JDL’s revenue break-up was 60% renewals and 40% new customers.
• Institution Desk - KEC International-BUY-2QFY16 Result Update- Strong Profitability Traction Continues; Retain Buy: KEC International (KEC) posted a 7% YoY decline in consolidated revenue to Rs20.2bn, 5%/13% below our/consensus estimates, respectively. The top-line was impacted by soft commodity prices (Rs800mn impact) and forex translation effect of Brazilian real (Rs500mn impact). However, EBITDA grew 28% YoY to Rs1.5bn translating to an operating margin of 7.7% (highest in the past 14 quarters), up 210bps YoY, despite lack of operating leverage benefit and Rs300mn forex translation loss (other expenses up 15% YoY).

 

• Results announced

MRF	Result ahead of expectation
Colgate Palmolive-Inst	ACCUMULATE-2QFY16 Result Update- EBITDA Margin Highest In 21 Quarters: While Colgate-Palmolive (India) or CPIL’s 2QFY16 net sales growth ( at 3.8% YoY) and volume growth (at 3%) were below expectations, organic growth improved to 10% compared to 8.8% YoY in the previous quarter. Market share gains continued sharply on YoY basis in case of both toothpaste and toothbrush (the latter at a multi-year high level), but slipped marginally on sequential basis in case of toothpaste by 30bps from its multi-year high in 1QFY16.
Alstom T&D	Results above expectation on EBIDTA and Net profit front. Sales came at 903.08cr as against expectation of 1077.50vs 792.26cr qoq cr vs yoy 907.62cr . EBITDA came at 104.75cr as against expectation of 80.05 cr vs qoq 62.57cr  vs yoy 93.80cr. PAT came at 46.27cr as against expectation of 43.13 vs qoq 19.58cr vs yoy 35.52cr. Qtr EPS is Rs. 1.81
Bharat Electronics	Results ahead of expectation. Sales came at 1449.23cr as against expectation of 1388.58 cr vs 1069.21cr qoq cr vs yoy 1265.73cr. EBITDA came at 175.42cr as against expectation of 151.43  vs qoq -5.39cr  vs yoy 118.91cr. PAT came at 206.75cr as against expectation of 162.83 cr vs qoq 60.70cr vs yoy 146.96cr. Share is trading at PE of 20x FY17 earning
Grasim Industries Ltd	Result is above expectation Sales came at 8297.5cr vs Exp 8230.4 qoq 8507cr yoy 7864.4cr EBITDA came at 1398cr vs Exp 1292.5cr qoq 1417.1cr yoy 1175.4cr PAT came at 488.5cr vs Exp 433.1cr qoq 484.7cr yoy 416.4cr
HCC	Results above expectation except for Sales. Sales came at 961.79cr as against expectation of 968crvs 908.09cr qoq cr vs yoy 931.59cr . EBITDA came at 182.85cr as against expectation of 132.18 cr vs qoq 164.75cr  vs yoy 198.04cr. Adj PAT came at 9.38cr as against expectation of loss of 10.73 vs qoq 8.02cr vs yoy 6.76cr
Heidelberg Cement Ltd	Result is marginally above expectation Sales came at 396.4cr vs Exp 386.6 qoq 431.8cr yoy 400cr EBITDA came at 50.2cr vs Exp 48.5cr qoq 51.7cr yoy 56.4cr PAT came at 2.10cr vs Exp loss of 2.4cr qoq 3.4cr yoy 1.6cr
Jubilant Life	Result is marginally above expectations Sales is Rs 1444.7 cr vs exp of Rs 1497 cr. QoQ Rs 1438 cr YoY Rs 1362 cr EBITDA is Rs 321 cr vs exp of Rs 302 cr. QoQ Rs 329 cr YoY Rs 111 cr PAT is Rs 116 cr vs exp of Rs 104 cr. QoQ Rs 128 YoY loss of Rs 94 cr The stock is trading at 14.5x FY16E earnings
Dr Reddy	Result is marginally above expectations Sales is Rs 1909 cr vs exp of Rs 1836 cr. QoQ Rs 1626 cr YoY Rs 1671 cr EBITDA is Rs 402 cr vs exp of Rs 386 cr. QoQ Rs 360 cr YoY Rs 335 cr PAT is Rs 198 cr vs exp of Rs 207 cr. QoQ Rs 178 YoY Rs 165 cr The stock is trading at 26.3x FY16E earnings
Glenmark	Result is marginally above expectations Sales is Rs 1909 cr vs exp of Rs 1836 cr. QoQ Rs 1626 cr YoY Rs 1671 cr EBITDA is Rs 402 cr vs exp of Rs 386 cr. QoQ Rs 360 cr YoY Rs 335 cr PAT is Rs 198 cr vs exp of Rs 207 cr. QoQ Rs 178 YoY loss of Rs 165 cr The stock is trading at 26.3x FY16E earnings
Astra Microwave Products	Result operationally improved but order book declined qoq. Sales came at 106.22cr vs 99.45cr qoq cr vs yoy 190.12cr . EBITDA came at 30.51cr vs qoq 13.40cr  vs yoy 39.25cr. PAT came at 18.11cr vs qoq 4.90cr vs yoy 23.40cr. Qtr EPS is Rs.2.21Order Book declined from 589cr in Q1 to Rs.544cr in Q2
Polaris Consulting	Result improved  . Sales came at 517.7  cr vs qoq 495.8 cr vs yoy  476.7 cr. EBITDA came at 70 cr vs qoq 63.7cr vs yoy 60.2 cr. PAT came at  47.3cr vs qoq 38.09 cr vs yoy (adj) 54.1cr.
LG Balakrishana	Result improved Sales came at 263cr vs qoq 233cr yoy 253cr EBITDA came at 36cr vs qoq 24cr yoy 36cr PAT came at 17.4cr vs qoq 9.01cr yoy Adj PAT 17cr Qtr EPS is Rs.11
Essel Propack	Result improved Continuing business Sales is Rs 529 cr vs QoQ Rs 517 cr YoY Rs 524 cr EBITDA is Rs 114 cr vs  QoQ Rs 100 cr YoY rs 103 cr PAT is Rs 48 cr vs QoQ Rs 38 cr YoY rs 37 cr
JM finance	Result has improved
DFM Foods	Result has improved Sales is Rs 97 cr vs QoQ Rs 68 cr YoY Rs 73 cr EBITDA is Rs 9.8 cr vs QoQ Rs 6.0 cr YoY rs 6.5 cr PAT is Rs 4.7 cr vs QoQ Rs 2.1 cr YoY rs 2.4 cr Qtr EPS Rs.4.74
ADF Foods	Result improved Sales is Rs 51 cr vs QoQ Rs 48.6 cr YoY Rs 44 cr EBITDA is Rs 5.1 cr vs QoQ Rs 4.4 cr YoY rs 3.8 cr PAT is Rs 3.1 cr vs QoQ Rs 0.9 cr YoY rs 2.7 cr Qtr EPs is Rs.1.42
Cigniti Technologies	Result improved . Sales came at 146.06  cr vs qoq 130.2 cr vs yoy  80.5 cr. EBITDA came at 25.27 cr vs qoq 19.5 cr vs yoy 7.25 cr. PAT came at 12.73  cr vs qoq 10.7 cr vs yoy  6.42cr. Qtr EPS Rs.5.15
Omax Auto	Result improved Sales came at 264cr vs qoq 251cr yoy 248cr EBITDA came at 18.7cr vs qoq 13.11cr yoy 11.96cr PAt came at 3.27cr vs qoq 0.69cr  6.11cr  In the current quarter tax rat was very high at over 50% and in last year same quarter Tax Rate is negative. Qtr EPS is Rs.1.63
City Union Bank	Result ok NII came at 240cr vs Exp 224 qoq 224 yoy 206cr PBP came at 205cr vs exp 194cr yoy 197cr yoy 173cr Provision came at 50cr vs qoq 45cr yoy 55cr PAT came at 108cr vs Exp 108cr qoq 112cr yoy 94cr GNPA came at 398cr vs qoq 359cr yoy 338cr
Sequent scientic	Result ok Sales came at 157cr vs qoq 147cr yoy 105cr EBITDA came at 20.4cr vs qoq 18.9cr yoy loss of 7cr PAT came at 2.31cr vs qoq 0.7cr yoy loss of Rs.22cr
Aksharchem	Result ok
Grindwell Norton	Result ok
South India Paper	Result ok
Torrent Pharma	Result ok Sales is Rs 1655 cr vs exp of Rs 1746 cr. QoQ Rs 1886 cr YoY Rs 1203 cr EBITDA is Rs 714 cr vs exp of Rs 593 cr. QoQ Rs 909 cr YoY Rs 273 cr Adjusted PAT is Rs 515 cr vs exp of Rs 379 cr. QoQ Rs 449 YoY Rs 198 cr The stock is trading at 20x FY16E earnings
Emami	Result is ok Sales is Rs 574.6 cr vs exp of Rs 620 cr. QoQ Rs 590 cr YoY Rs 490 cr EBITDA is Rs 152 cr vs exp of Rs 159.7 cr. QoQ Rs 100 cr YoY Rs 113 cr PAT is Rs 61.3 cr (on back of higher amortization) vs exp of Rs 87 cr. QoQ Rs 88 YoY loss of Rs 93 cr The stock is trading at 43.8x FY16E earnings
Ador Welding	Result were ok. Sales came at 91.37cr vs 80.08cr qoq cr vs yoy 87.45cr . EBITDA came at 8.0 5cr vs qoq 9.74cr  vs yoy 5.25cr . Adj PAT came at 2.31cr vs qoq 5.60cr vs yoy 2.03cr
Crompton Greaves-Inst	ACCUMULATE -2QFY16 Result Update- In Transition Phase; Retain Accumulate: Crompton Greaves (CGL) posted consolidated revenue of Rs32.2bn in 2QFY16, down 6% YoY and in line with our estimate. The top-line was aided by a 8% YoY growth in consumer segment to Rs8bn (25% of total revenue) while power systems segment (60% of total revenue) posted a 11% YoY decline in sales to Rs19bn. EBITDA fell 7% YoY to Rs1.6bn, translating to operating margin of 4.9%, flat on YoY basis. The operating losses in international power systems business (38% of total revenue) continue with 2QFY16 loss at Rs216mn. PAT stood at Rs521mn, 12%/5% above our/consensus estimates, respectively.
RPG Lifescience	Result is ok Sales is Rs 67.2 cr vs QoQ Rs 66.5 cr YoY Rs 56.6 cr EBITDA is Rs 5.5 cr vs QoQ Rs 5.4 cr YoY loss of Rs 4.1 cr PAT is Rs 2.6 cr vs QoQ Rs 2.1 cr YoY loss of rs 7.4 cr Qtr EPS is Rs.1.55
SOLAR Ind	Result ok
Chemfab Alkalies	Result ok
Auto Corp of Goa	Result ok
Asahi Songwon Colours	Result is ok Sales is Rs 60.3 cr vs QoQ Rs 58 cr YoY Rs 58 cr EBITDA is Rs 9.7 cr vs QoQ Rs 10.6 cr YoY rs 8.2 cr PAT is Rs 5.4 cr vs QoQ Rs 5.0 cr YoY rs 4.1 cr
Firstsource Solution	Result  inline  . Sales came at  779.2 cr vs exp 784.2cr vs qoq 738.4 cr vs yoy  769.8 cr. EBITDA came at 98.4 cr vs exp 97.9cr vs qoq 89.6 cr vs yoy 94.8 cr. PAT came at 61.8  cr vs exp 62.5cr vs qoq 56.41 cr vs yoy  61. 24cr.
Shriram Transport finance	Result inline
NTPC	Result inline Higher profit is on account of tax write back
Redington	Result inline. Sales came at  8380.2cr vs exp 8288.1cr vs qoq 7569.5 cr vs yoy 7757.7 cr. EBITDA came at  182.7cr vs exp 175.2cr vs qoq 155.5 cr vs yoy 158.7 cr. PAT came at 96.6 cr vs exp 94.8cr vs  qoq 81.15 cr vs yoy  85.95cr.
Gandhi Special Tubes Ltd	Result ok Sales came at 21.7cr vs qoq 24.4cr yoy 25.4cr EBITDA came at 8cr vs qoq 7.1cr yoy 7.4cr PAT came at 4.9 cr vs qoq 4.3cr yoy 5.4 cr
GIC Housing	Result  ok NII came at 66cr vs qoq 60cr yoy 54cr PBP came at 50cr vs qoq 48cr yoy 41cr PAT came at 30cr vs qoq 28cr yoy 26cr
Nestle India-Inst	SELL-3QCY15 Result Update- Sales Decline Even After Excluding Maggi Noodle Ban Impact: Net sales of Nestle India (NIL) declined 32.2% YoY compared to our/Bloomberg consensus estimates of 20%/21% decline, respectively. Even adjusting for absence of Maggi noodle sales during the quarter and the impact of sales reversal, other segments also reported a Rs2bn sales decline YoY (around 11% fall). Thus other segments are struggling as well. Operating margin of 16.9% was well below our/Bloomberg consensus estimates of 20.0%/19.4%, respectively, leading to PBT decline of 55.8% YoY, also well below our and Bloomberg consensus expectations.
SKF	Result were below expectation. Sales came at 591.4cr as against expectation of 633.58vs 603.33cr qoq cr vs yoy 603.80cr . EBITDA came at 67.69cr as against expectation of 75.05 cr vs qoq 64.60cr  vs yoy 82.32cr. PAT came at 50.04cr as against expectation of 53.10 vs qoq 46.55cr vs yoy 58.65cr. Qtr EPS is Rs. 9.5
Praj Industries	Result below expectation. Sales came at 202.53cr vs 192.50cr qoq cr vs yoy 265.04cr . EBITDA came at 10.35cr vs qoq 11.23cr  vs yoy 15.53cr. PAT came at 4.76cr vs qoq 5.18cr vs yoy 24.87cr. Qtr EPS is Rs. 0.27
Dishman Pharma	Result is below expectations Sales is Rs 374 cr vs exp of Rs 438 cr. QoQ Rs 400 cr YoY Rs 392 cr EBITDA is Rs 91.5 cr vs exp of Rs 110 cr. QoQ Rs 104 cr YoY Rs 88 cr PAT is Rs 36.5 cr vs exp of Rs 44.4 cr. QoQ Rs 37.8 YoY Rs 33.4 cr The stock is trading at 17.9x FY16E earnings
Bharat Forge	Result below expectation Sales came at 1090cr vs exp 1222cr qoq 1103cr yoy 1108cr EBITDA came at 321cr vs Exp 357cr qoq 346cr yoy 324cr PAT came at 175cr vs Exp 200cr qoq 195cr yoy 175cr. The decline is mainly on account of lower demand from industrial segment for Truck segment company has said the demand in North america to be flat to marginally lower in CY16
Neuland	Result is marginally below expectations Sales is Rs 120 cr vs exp of Rs 130 cr. QoQ Rs 115 cr YoY Rs 120 cr EBITDA is Rs 18.4 cr vs exp of Rs 20.6 cr. QoQ Rs 20 cr YoY Rs 15.4 cr PAT is Rs 6.2 cr vs exp of Rs 6.9 cr. QoQ Rs 7.3 YoY Rs 5.1 cr The stock is trading at 22x FY16E earnings⁠⁠⁠⁠
Yes Bank	Result marginally below on assets quality. NII came at 1108cr vs Exp 1104cr qoq 1060 yoy 856cr PBP Came at 1019cr vs Exp 961cr qoq 908cr yoy 817cr  Provision came at 104cr vs qoq 98cr yoy 120cr PAT came at 610cr vs Exp 567xe qoq 551cr yoy 483cr Gross NPAT came at 491cr vs qoq 368cr Q4FY15 313cr yoy 222cr
Supreme Industries-Inst	UNDER REVIEW-1QFY16 Result Update- Healthy Volume Growth: Supreme Industries (SIL) reported a healthy volume growth of 16.5% to 57,226tn following 25.9%/3.9%/10.3% growth in piping/packaging/consumer product divisions, respectively, and a 1.9% decline in industrial segment. Margins improved across product segments but because of inventory losses and higher employee costs, up 64bps, operating margin improved by only 102bps to 11.7%, 26bps/163bps below our/Bloomberg consensus estimates, respectively. Reported PAT grew 46% to Rs319mn but following a Rs74mn loss in an associate company, adjusted PAT declined 2.3% to Rs245mn, 23.1%/44.5% below our/Bloomberg consensus estimates, respectively.
MRPL	Result below expectation. Result impacted by inventory loss rupee depreciation and lower GRM Sales came at 10218cr vs Exp 9598cr qoq 11313cr yoy 15911cr EBITDA came at negative 915cr vs Exp 135cr qoq 1032cr yoy negative 897cr  Loss came at 909cr vs Exp loss of 240cr qoq 405cr yoy loss of 951cr.
Muthoot Finance	Result below Expectation NII came at 558cr vs Exp 591cr qoq 573cr yoy 549cr PBP Came at 283cr vs Exp 297cr qoq 294cr yoy 264cr Provision came at 15cr vs qoq 11cr yoy 4cr PAt came at 175cr vs  Exp 193cr qoq 183cr yoy 171cr
Bharat Gear	Result declining
Oriental Hotel	Result declining
Sagar Cement Ltd-	Result declining Sales came at 180.9cr vs qoq 194.7cr yoy 125.2cr EBITDA came at 17.9cr vs qoq 38.5cr yoy 8.8cr PAT came at 8.7 cr vs qoq 22.7cr yoy 282.4 cr
Gujarat Pipavav	Result not good
V2	Result declining
Indian Touris Development corp	Result continue to remain weak
Thomas Cook	Result declining Sales came at 956cr vs qoq 925cr yoy 608cr EBITDA came at 52cr vs qoq 83cr yoy 55cr Lower EBITDA is on account of higher losses in Vacation ownership business (Sterling Holiday) lower profit in Financial Services Business. PAT came at 14.6cr vs qoq 37.8cr yoy 22.2cr.

 

• Results to be announced (PAT Rs cr)

30-Oct	Sept'14	June'15	Expectation
3M India Ltd.	24.6	39.5	na
Ajanta Pharma Ltd.	78.6	83.8	91.0
Apollo Tyres Ltd.	257.9	290.6	308.1
Century Enka Ltd.	12.5	13.6	na
Century Textiles & Industries Ltd.	0.8	-29.0	-22.2
Damodar Industries Ltd.	2.3	3.3	na
Elgi Equipments Ltd.	13.8	13.7	15.2
Empire Industries Ltd.	7.2	6.9	na
EPC Industries Ltd.	-2.4	1.3	na
Gujarat Alkalies & Chemicals Ltd.	48.7	44.0	na
ICICI Bank Ltd.	2709.0	2976.2	3001.0
Indoco Remedies Ltd.	22.4	20.3	25.6
Ion Exchange (India) Ltd.	3.7	4.4	na
Ipca Laboratories Ltd.	61.3	18.9	59.5
ITC Ltd.	2425.2	2265.4	2603.5
Jagran Prakashan Ltd.	56.6	180.0	77.2
Jindal Drilling & Industries Ltd.	9.2	7.4	na
JMC Projects (India) Ltd.	4.3	6.3	4.8
Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd.	717.9	516.6	791.9
Kalyani Steels Ltd.	22.8	28.9	27.8
The Karnataka Bank Ltd.	88.5	109.3	124.4
Larsen & Toubro Ltd.	861.8	606.2	959.7
Maharashtra Seamless Ltd.	34.9	-8.3	11.5
Merck Ltd.	17.6	16.9	18.5
Munjal Showa Ltd.	17.8	17.7	16.9
Nocil Ltd.	13.1	16.7	na