Thursday, October 8, 2015

DAILY NIFTY OUTLOOK, 8TH OCT 2015



Nifty October futures (8194.65)(+34.1):
Volatility continued despite a small range day for Nifty future as it consolidated the gains of the past few days and moved range bound between 8200 and 8150 for the better part of the day with occasional spikes on both sides. It was an almost flat opening for the index. Its swing up was resisted in the 8200 region every time it attempted to cross it. The session ended in a rally and it closed the day on a firm note leading to expectation that the rally is likely to continue today and at least the opening will be on a positive note. There is a high probability that nifty future will open above the 8200 level and if this level gives support on dips, we may consider that the long term uptrend has been confirmed. If, however, this level fails to hold on dips or closing basis, chances are that the lower supports will be tested once again.

8170-8150 is currently the strong support below which 8115-8105 is the next important support zone. The critical level now is around 7980-8000 and a decisive breach of this region will see the bears returning to the centres stage again. However, given the strength of the markets, an immediate test of this region seems less likely.
  • Resistance: 8200, 8225, 8245, 8275, 8300, 8324, 8350

  • Support: 8170, 8115-8105, 8060, 8040, 7985, 7960, 7897-7900, 7880, 7820, 7765, 7714



Bank Nifty October Futures (17689.05) (+16.3):

It was a dull trading day for this index as it moved within a small range which may be technically termed as an inside day as its range was encompasses within the range of the previous day. This will assume significance today as it may give a large move in the direction of the breakout, which, given the market mood, could be on the higher side. It closed the day with modest gains. Since the closing is almost flat, our earlier view and levels remains the same. 

It has come up against an important resistance zone between 17745 and 17887. 17745 is the immediate resistance. It is also the critical level since the 200 exponential moving average is posited in this region and the long term uptrend will be confirmed if Bank nifty future closes decisively above this level. The levels of 17793, 17855, 17887 are important hurdles which need to be crossed on closing basis for fresh momentum, which could lead to the 18000 region. On the lower side, 17625, 17570 are good supports but 17520 is the important support region and as long as this level holds on declines, the bulls will continue to have advantage. A breach of this important support could lead to a retest of the lower levels once again. 17300 is the critical support for now and a decisive breach of this level could lead to fresh panic unwinding.


  • Resistance: 17745, 17793-17800, 17855, 17887-17900, 17998-18000, 18137

  • Support: 17700, 17625, 17580, 17500, 17414, 17366, 17300, 17260, 17200, 17170, 17158

daily market outlook- 8 OCT 205



Dear Customer,
 
Markets always tend to be interesting with something or the other happening all the time. Our Morning Mantra is released before the opening bell and it includes the market commentary along with Corporate & Global news for the day.
 
  • U.S. stocks paused Tuesday, closing moderately lower after five straight days of gains. DuPont and energy companies rose sharply, but the overall market was weighed down by health-care stocks, especially biotechnology companies.
Dow Jones
16790.2
+13.8
+0.08%
Dow Jones Fut
16639.0
-33.0
-0.20%
Hangseng
22003.3
+171.7
+0.79%
Nikkie
18155.6
-30.5
-0.17%
SGX Nifty
8166.5
+1.5
+0.02%
 
  • Asian stocks held firm on Wednesday as a sharp rebound in oil prices supported battered resource shares and emerging economy currencies, while Japanese markets were tentative ahead of a crucial Bank of Japan policy meeting.
  • Market is expected to open on a flattish note and likely to remain range bound during the day.
  • Maharashtra would soon initiate the process of taking back the Latur, Osmanabad, Nanded, Yavatmal and Baramati airports awarded to Reliance Airport Developmentin August 2009 for development.
  • Uflex, has decided to invest Rs 1,500-crore packaging plant at Sanand, citing proximity to customers such as Nestle, Nivea, Colgate, among others
  • Anil Ambani-led Reliance Mediaworks has sold 9.75% stake in media services major Prime Focus for over Rs 155 crore through an open market transaction
  • Phoenix Mills Ltd has acquired the entire 19.38 per cent equity stake held by MTX Hotels in Gangetic Hotels Private Limited (GHPL).
  • Aurobindo Pharma Likely To Launch QIP Issue Today, Looking To Raise $250-300 m Total Equity Dilution Around 3-4% On Post Basis
  • Institution Desk - FMCG Sector-September 2015 Quarter Result Preview- Raw Material Cost Decline To Boost Margins: Sales growth for the September 2015 quarter is likely to be around 7%-8% YoY for Colgate-Palmolive (India) or CPIL, GlaxoSmithKline Consumer or GSK Consumer and United Breweries, while it is expected to decline sharply YoY again for Nestle India because of the Maggi noodle problem and grow 15%-16% YoY in case of P&G Hygiene and Healthcare or P&GHH and Britannia Industries or BIL (the former despite a high base, and the latter aided by a low base) and grow by 20% in case of Westlife Development (WDL) and 27% YoY for Jubilant FoodWorks (the latter aided by a likely healthy same-store sales growth (SSG) of 6%-7% because of a low base). Barring Nestle India, United Breweries and WDL, the last of which is likely to report a small positive EBITDA compared to loss at the EBITDA level in the corresponding quarter a year ago, all other companies are expected to report healthy EBITDA growth ranging from 17.6%  to  50.0% YoY, mainly because of a decline in raw material costs. EBITDA and PAT are likely to decline YoY in case of Nestle India and remain tepid for United Breweries. WDL is likely to report sustained loss at the net level in FY16. For CPIL, P&GHH and Jubilant FoodWorks, despite healthy EBITDA growth YoY, PAT growth is likely to be around 11%-13% because of a low tax rate in base quarter of the previous year.  For BIL and GlaxoSmithKline Consumer, healthy EBITDA growth YoY is also likely to percolate down to the PAT level as well.
 
  • Results to be announced (PAT Rs cr)
7-Oct
Sept'14
June'15
Expectation
Bajaj Corp Ltd.
37.4
47.5
49.5