Gold Intraday Recommendation

Action	SCRIPTS	Entry	Target	stop
BUY	GOLD	25600	25800	25500

MCX COPPER POSITIONAL RECOMMENDATION

Action	SCRIPTS	Entry	Target	stoploss
SELL	COPPER	360	342	368

MCX CRUDE OIL INTRADAY RECOMMENDATION

Action	SCRIPTS	Entry	Target	stoploss
SELL	CRUDEOIL	2670	2690	2600

Forex Intraday recommendation

Action	SCRIPTS	Entry	Target	stop
SELL	GBPINR	92.65	92.85	92.25

Update: Book Full profit in  GBPINR  @ 92.40

UPDATE: BOOK MORE PROFIT IN GBPINR @ 92.28, TARGET AT 92.25 ALMOST ACHVD

Bank Nifty recommendations

Action	SCRIPTS	Entry	Target	stop
BUY	BANK NIFTY	19200	18950	19600

Gold: Strong Dollar affecting gold prices in 2015; Sell

Gold settled down -0.31% at 26137 as hopes for a successful resolution to Greece's debt talks boosted assets seen as higher risk, such as stocks. Greece's government confirmed it would ask for an extension to its loan agreement with the euro zone, which it distinguishes from its full bailout programme. The market is awaiting further direction from the minutes of the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) policy meeting later, but looked vulnerable to further losses with the absence of Chinese buyers during the Lunar New Year break. Gold has come under pressure from expectations the Fed will raise interest rates as early as June this year, potentially lifting the dollar and boosting the opportunity cost of holding non- yielding assets, such as bullion. The U.S. Commerce Department said that the number of building permits issued last month decreased by 0.7% to 1.053 million units. The report also showed that U.S. housing starts declined by 2.0% last month to hit 1.065 million units from December’s total of 1.087 million units, worse than expectations for a decline of 1.7% to 1.070 million. A separate Commerce Department report said that producer prices fell by 0.8% last month, compared to forecasts for a 0.4% decline. Year-over-year, the producer price index was flat in January. The core producer price index eased down by 0.1% last month, compared to forecasts for a gain of 0.1% and following an increase of 0.3% in December.

Fed Minutes Show Reluctance To Raise Interest Rates Just Yet

The Federal Reserve was in no hurry to signal a possible interest rate hike in January, according to the minutes of the Fed's most recent policy meeting. However, that meeting took place before January's exceptionally strong jobs report was available, and a number of policy makers have since indicated a willingness to raise rates in June. The Fed said information reviewed for the January 27-28 meeting showed that economic activity expanded at a solid pace over the second half of 2014, and that labor market conditions had again improved in recent months. Even so, members agreed to continue to include language indicating that the Fed can "be patient" in beginning to normalize the stance of monetary policy, particularly given the dramatic drop in energy prices and low inflation. Dropping language that Fed officials will be patient might cause "undesirably tight" financial conditions, some policy makers feared. A number of officials argued in favor of keeping rates at zero "for a longer time," and "many" on the Fed said a premature rate hike would harm the recovery.

Greece Likely To Seek Bailout Extension

Greece is expected to request an extension of its bailout agreement for six months on Wednesday, reports said quoting government officials. At the Eurogroup meeting on Monday, Greece resisted an extension of the current bailout program. Eurozone finance ministers granted Greece time until Friday to apply for extension. The current EUR 240 billion Greek bailout program will expire on February 28. The European Central Bank is set to decide on whether to continue the emergency lending provided to Greek banks.

Strong Dollar affecting gold prices in 2015

The strength of the dollar is a double-edged sword, and it remains to be seen which edge is the sharper. Demand for dollar-denominated commodities such as gold typically weakens on a stronger greenback as it makes the metal more expensive for holders of other currencies, lowering its hedge appeal. In 2015, the Fed will raise interest rates as the ECB launches its own Quantitative Easing program and the Bank of Japan considers more loosening measures. With the U.S. unemployment rate dropping below 6% and wages beginning to rise, the central bank has no choice but to begin the process of normalizing monetary policy. With stocks expected to provide less return, the dollar will become more attractive to yield hungry investors and their demand for the greenback should drive Gold below $1000.

Gold demand in India slipped 14 per cent to 842.7 tonnes in 2014, says WGC

Gold demand in the country declined by 14 per cent to 842.7 tonnes in 2014 as compared to the previous year, mainly due to government policies putting restrictions on imports, according to the World Gold Council (WGC). The overall demand for the yellow metal stood at 974.8 tonnes in 2013, says a WGC report titled 'Gold Demand Trend 2014'. In value terms, the demand for gold dipped by 19 per cent to Rs 208,979.2 crore in 2014 as compared to Rs 257,211.4 crore in 2013, the report said. The total jewellery demand in the country for the last year was up by eight per cent at 662.1 tonnes as compared to 612.7 tonnes in 2013. In value terms, domestic jewellery demand in 2014 stood at Rs 208,979.2 crore, a fall of 19 per cent from Rs 257,211.4 crore in 2013. Total imports of the precious metal stood at 769 tonnes, including grey market, as compared to 825 tonnes in 2013. The robust demand comes despite tighter gold import rules, some of which were removed only in the latter part of 2014.

Recommendation: Sell gold @ 26400-26500 with a stop-loss placed above 26850 for targets of 26050-25760-25320.

MCX Feb Copper - Inverse Head & Shoulder

MCX Feb Copper; after testing its 3 year low of 332 levels, copper prices started inching higher in a short covering mode. In this process it has developed a “inverse head & shoulder” pattern on daily/4 hours chart. Currently prices are hovering around its neck-line resistance of 357.70 levels and on a convincing close above the same will get the confirmation about the trend reversal and intact further uptrend for near-future. According to chart pattern the length between neck-line to head will be the immediate target on upside i.e. 383 levels. However, anysharp decline below the right shoulder of 346 levels will negate the pattern and drag the prices into negative territory.

The moving averages in MACD has given an upside crossover and the momentum indicators RSI & Heiken Ashi both are trading in a positive zone by supporting the view.

Strategy: MCX Feb Copper:

Buy 1 lot above 358 for the target of 383 with a stop loss 345…Cmp 355.75

Risk/return ratio: 1: >1.9

Risk: 13000 (on 1 lot)

Return: 25000 (on 1 lot)

Weekly Commodities:

MCX March Natural Gas

MCX March Natural Gas rose to as high as 189.30 levels, before making a temporary top there and turned into weak mode by forming a “bearish engulfing” candlestick pattern on weekly charts. Also it has completed 23.6% Fibonacci level of the previous fall and ensuring the way down towards the swing low of 158 levels. Hence, any rise will be limited at 173 levels and bring some selling pressu re from the same.

RSI & Heiken-ashi momentum indicators both are continued to stay in positive zone.

Candlestick/chart pattern: “Bearish Engulfing”

Recommendation: Sell at entry around 173, target price 158 with stop-loss at 180.

MCX April Copper

After consolidating in a range of 356 to 367 levels over a period of two weeks, MCX copper futures have provided a breakout through the consolidation phase and managed to close well above the same. Further risk remains on upside toward 50% Fibonacci level of 378.20 levels. Hence, any dip can be used to accumulate fresh longs at 367 levels.

RSI coupled with heiken ashi momentum indicator both are placed in positive zone by supporting the view.

Recommendation: Buy around 367, target price 378 with stop-loss at 361.

MCX March Lead

MCX Mar Lead’s bearish outlook remains unchanged, as long as prices continue to decline in a “descending channel”. Currently, prices are on verge to test its support line of 103.60 levels. So me pullback is expected from lower levels that can take the prices towards the channel resistance of 109 levels, however overall view remains weak and one can utilize to create fresh shorts at higher levels.

RSI-14 period has gone into negative territory and long-term momentum indicator MACD has also given a breakdown through the signal line by supporting the view.

Candlestick/chart pattern: - “Descending channel".

Recommendation: Sell around 109, target price 103.60 with stop-loss at 111.15.

Weekly Commodities: Buy MCX Apr Gold for a target price of 26780

MCX April Gold

Comex Gold dived to as low as USD1190/0z last week, but a strong rebound from those levels kept the prices in a positive tone by forming a “bullish hammer” candlestick pattern on weekly charts. This signifies that the temporary bottom has formed at the recent lows and uptrend is intact for the near- future to test 38.2% Fibonacci level of USD1235 level s.

Hence, any fall can be hold at 1200 mark and bring some buying pressure from the same. MCX Apr Gold too ended as a bullish hammer on weekly charts. Further rally can see towards 26560 & 26780 levels, where as a support lies at 26950 levels.

Spread Strategy: Buy MCX Mar Lead; Sell MCX Mar Aluminum

Inter-Commodity Spread: 

An inter-commodity spread is taking an advantage from the price behavior of two different commodity futures with a same expiry date. Means going long on one commodity future and short in other commodity future.

Strategy:

The spread between Lead & Aluminum 31st Mar 2015 expiry futures contracts is hovering in the range of 4.9 to -4.65 levels for the last 60 days. Currently the spread difference is at 3.30 levels and that is expected to become -0.90 in short-term. In current scenario one can take the advantage of the price movement and initiate short position in lead and long position in aluminum at the current market price.