INTRADAY ENERGY CALL:SELL MCX CRUDEOIL BELOW 3020 SL 3045 TARGET 2970 CMP 3021
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Sunday, March 29, 2015
MORNING MANTRA- NIFTY OUTLOOK 30TH MARCH 2015
Nifty (8341.4, -0.75)
Nifty closed almost flat on the last trading day and so did the US markets. The debate continues whether FED will spring its first rate hike later this year. One of the deciding factors will be the improvement in the labour market. March Jobs data will therefore be interesting and a topic of much debate. Next week will be a truncated trading week on account of Easter. It could be a highly volatile week too.
Though Nifty opened above the Thursday closing price on Friday, the first day of the new clearing, at 8396 it quickly shed its early gains after testing the intraday high of 8413 and posted a new low of this downswing when it breached the 8300 level and tested a low of 8269.15. There was a sharp recovery from these levels towards the second half of the day and the index closed almost flat with a loss of 0.75 points making a touchline pattern. This signals that some pull back could be in the offing but certainly confirmation is need on the next trading day. There are telltale signs on the technical charts to tell you we need to be far more watchful about further signs surfacing. The current downswing is already 17 trading days old and its price amplitude is 850 Nifty points. It has fallen way below the short term moving averages so the possibility of either a pullback or flat range bound move is likely. Traders are likely to be less committal since it is a short trading week as markets are closed on Thursday and Friday.
Many major pivotal counters are showing the touchline formation too. This signals that for now the bears should book profits and wait for fresh signals of weakness on the charts before taking short positions again. On the other hand, short covering rally could be sharp and fast, giving a chance for the agile bull traders to make a quick profit but with utmost care and they should liquidate the positions at the first sign of trouble.
Nifty closed almost flat on the last trading day and so did the US markets. The debate continues whether FED will spring its first rate hike later this year. One of the deciding factors will be the improvement in the labour market. March Jobs data will therefore be interesting and a topic of much debate. Next week will be a truncated trading week on account of Easter. It could be a highly volatile week too.
Though Nifty opened above the Thursday closing price on Friday, the first day of the new clearing, at 8396 it quickly shed its early gains after testing the intraday high of 8413 and posted a new low of this downswing when it breached the 8300 level and tested a low of 8269.15. There was a sharp recovery from these levels towards the second half of the day and the index closed almost flat with a loss of 0.75 points making a touchline pattern. This signals that some pull back could be in the offing but certainly confirmation is need on the next trading day. There are telltale signs on the technical charts to tell you we need to be far more watchful about further signs surfacing. The current downswing is already 17 trading days old and its price amplitude is 850 Nifty points. It has fallen way below the short term moving averages so the possibility of either a pullback or flat range bound move is likely. Traders are likely to be less committal since it is a short trading week as markets are closed on Thursday and Friday.
Many major pivotal counters are showing the touchline formation too. This signals that for now the bears should book profits and wait for fresh signals of weakness on the charts before taking short positions again. On the other hand, short covering rally could be sharp and fast, giving a chance for the agile bull traders to make a quick profit but with utmost care and they should liquidate the positions at the first sign of trouble.
- Most critical levels for the day: 8393 (upside) & 8270 (downside)
- Strong support: 8309 – 8265 - 8240
- Major support: 8165 – 8109
- Strong resistance: 8380 - 8416 – 8448
- Major resistance: 8510 – 8565
Bank Nifty (18044.8, +213.15)
This index has been showing much more weakness than the Nifty for the past few days but the signs of a reversal are stronger in the bank nifty chart; most of the major bank charts are also showing the touchline formation and unless it is negated by the price movement on Monday, there would be hope for a pullback. It tested a low of 17719.35 before recovering to close the day on a positive note with a gain of 213 points on the first day of the new clearing. On the other hand, if it were to fall below 17605 – 17562 support area it would be headed for a test of the major support zone between 17165 and 17022. All this goes to show what the Chinese proverb says: we are in for interesting times!
- Most critical levels for the day: 18200 ( upside) and 17860 (downside)
- Strong support: 17700 - 17605 – 17562
- Major support: 17165 – 17022
- Strong resistance: 18100 – 18200
- Major resistance: 18375 – 18446 - 18510
Wednesday, March 25, 2015
INTRADAY METAL CALL
SELL MCX LEAD BELOW 114.35 SL 115.35 TARGET 112.35 CMP 114.35 .
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INTRADAY MCX CRUDE CALL
SELL MCX CRUDEOIL BELOW 2970 SL 2995 TARGET 2920 CMP 2972
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MORNING MANTRA NIFTY OUTLOOK OF THE DAY
Nifty (8542.95, -07.95, -0.09%)
Generally, after a protracted downtrend a candlestick gravestone doji like formation gives rise to a pullback rally—this formation happens when the market opens near the day’s low goes up quite a bit and then again comes down at the end to close near the day’s low. For a perfect gravestone doji to happen the open and close must be at the same level. In yesterday’s market activity both the Nifty and the Bank Nifty showed this formation albeit not a perfect one. This essentially shows a flagging off of the downside momentum. Here, with only two more sessions to go before the March series of derivative contracts coming to an end, this essentially suggests a possibility of another round of short covering. We need to see if such a short covering led rally, that tapered off close to the anticipated supply zone between 8630 and 8655, hits a speed breaker around the same resistance area.
Generally, after a protracted downtrend a candlestick gravestone doji like formation gives rise to a pullback rally—this formation happens when the market opens near the day’s low goes up quite a bit and then again comes down at the end to close near the day’s low. For a perfect gravestone doji to happen the open and close must be at the same level. In yesterday’s market activity both the Nifty and the Bank Nifty showed this formation albeit not a perfect one. This essentially shows a flagging off of the downside momentum. Here, with only two more sessions to go before the March series of derivative contracts coming to an end, this essentially suggests a possibility of another round of short covering. We need to see if such a short covering led rally, that tapered off close to the anticipated supply zone between 8630 and 8655, hits a speed breaker around the same resistance area.
- Most critical levels for the day: 8532 (downside) and 8563 (upside)
- Strong support: 8532 – 8470
- Major support: 8420 – 8350
- Strong resistance: 8625 – 8664
- Major resistance: 8695 – 8725 and then 8798 – 8850
Bank Nifty (18331.45, -117.55, -0.64%)
The same commentary also applies for the Bank Nifty as indicated above. Here, once the level of 18470 is taken out it would have to face the acid test levels between 18579 and 18589. Once this latter range is decisively taken out only then you can expect any potential recovery swing to continue. On the downside, a sustained campaign below the yesterday’s low would negate the bullish implication of that imperfect gravestone doji formation.
- Most critical levels for the day: 18289 (downside) & 18470 (upside)
- Strong resistance: 18579 – 18589
- Major resistance: 18739 – 18811
- Strong support: 18317 – 18289
- Major support: 18050 - 17989
Tuesday, March 24, 2015
MARKET OUTLOOK 24TH MARCH 2015
Dear Customer,
Markets always tend to be interesting with something or the other happening all the time. Our Morning Mantra is released before the opening bell and it includes the market commentary along with Corporate & Global news for the day.
- U.S. stocks erased modest gains in the last 15 minutes of trading, finishing slightly lower on Monday
| Dow Jones |
18116.0
|
-11.6
|
-0.06%
|
| Dow Futures |
18016.0
|
-17.0
|
-0.09%
|
| Hangseng |
24433.9
|
-60.6
|
-0.25%
|
| Nikkie |
19718.6
|
-35.8
|
-0.18%
|
| SGX Nifty |
8555.0
|
-16.0
|
-0.25%
|
- Asian stocks widened losses across the board early Tuesday as a preliminary survey of China's mammoth factory sector served up new worries over the state of the world's second-largest economy
- Market is expected to open on lower note and likely to remain range bound during the day.
- The government will borrow a gross Rs 3.6 lakh crore in the first half of the financial year starting next month, about 60% of the full-year gross borrowing estimate of Rs 6 lakh crore, for 2015-16.Net borrowing for the first half, through issue of bonds, is expected to be Rs 2.25 lakh crore, versus the full year target of Rs 4.56 lakh crore, Finance Secretary Rajiv Mehrishi said on Monday. The government and Reserve Bank of India usually front-load to the tune of 60-65% of the full year's budgeted requirement
- Dr Reddy’s Laboratories Limited has entered into a licencing agreement with Hetero Drugs Limited to distribute and market chronic Hepatitis C medicine Sofosbuvir 400 mg under the brand name Resof in India.
- The Delhi High Court on Monday granted an interim relief to Jindal Steel & Power Ltd by restraining the government from allocating two coal blocks, for which the company emerged as the successful bidder during a recent auction, to state-run Coal India Ltd.
- Jindal Stainless has received approval from stock exchanges to restructure its businesses, a move aimed at boosting profitability and paring debt.
- SpiceJet has resolved a legal dispute over aircraft rentals with one of its lessors, which will now allow the airline to retain three Boeing 737-800s in its fleet that has seen substantial reduction due to the financial crisis last year.
- To reduce its debt by nearly 25%, HDIL hopes to monetise all its non-core assets in coming fiscal and expects to garner around Rs 750 crore which will be utilised for paring debt
- Blue Star is planning to set up a unit in South India at an expected investment of Rs 150 crore by December 2016,
- Tech Mahindra, HCL Technologies eye USD 350 million stake in Geometric
- CCI approves merger of Shasun Pharma with Strides Arcolab
- USFDA has issued import alert to Aarti Drugs for its formulations plant which contributes 2.5% of company’s revenues.
- Vardhman Textiles: Analyst Meet Update - Institution Desk: We attended the analyst meet of Vardhman Textiles (VTL) held on 23 March 2015. The reason for holding the meet at this juncture is that the company completed most of its cotton procurement in the current quarter and is in a better position to clarify its cotton procurement policy. VTL maintains cotton inventory of eight-nine months. The management appeared confident on the medium to long-term outlook of the domestic textile sector in general and the fabric segment in particular. It has given guidance of higher dividend payout in future on account of lower estimated capex and higher cash profits. The company is planning to reduce its debt by Rs12bn in the next couple of years. Net debt-equity ratio for FY15 is seen at 0.7x. The management gave guidance of a steady operating margin in the range of 18%-22%. This will be mainly driven by likely growth in high-margin fabric business. Revenue growth for the next couple of years is seen muted because of almost full capacity utilisation. The company has historically been providing for higher depreciation compared to industry norm. Moreover, the recent change (reducing the useful life of machinery for depreciation purpose) is expected to result in an additional charge of Rs1.7bn, which in turn will reduce profits.
Monday, March 23, 2015
MORNING MANTRA- NIFTY OUTLOOK OF THE DAY
Nifty (8550.90, -20.00, -0.23%)
The Nifty level of 8550 held out in yesterday’s trade, and the international cues are flat to marginally positive this morning. What this essentially means is that we ought to fend for ourselves on a day when the derivative settlement is just a couple of days away. While the short term downtrend is alive and kicking its momentum is somewhat diminished; it is but quite natural, coming very close to the major support area between 8530 and 8470, you should not be surprised to see the bearish momentum flagging off a bit especially when the settlement for derivatives is knocking at the door. Thus, it is not quite unreasonable to expect some bit of short covering happening in today’s session especially in stocks where we saw hammering has been happening for quite some time like some of the metal counters. However, we also need to keep this in mind that a large scale fresh call option writing for the 8600-strike for the current series for a closing premium of just around 30 points shows that market participants do not expect any huge short covering happening.
- Most critical levels for the day: 8530, its immediate support as well
- Strong support: 8530 – 8470
- Major support: 8420 – 8380
- Strong resistance: 8583 – 8612
- Major resistance: 8630 – 8655
Bank Nifty (18449.00, -157.35, -0.85%)
The weakness continues in this index; the bearish belt-hold has been confirmed by two days of down closes yet we would say that unless the Bank Nifty were to take out the range between 18425 and 18317 today, you could expect some bounce on the upside prompted by some short covering. On the upside, so long as it fails to take out the 18585-level, no rally is likely to sustain at higher levels. Any attempt at a pullback, the index needs to take out the zone between 18779 and 18811 for any misstep there would put index again on the reverse gear.
- Most critical levels for the day: 18425, its immediate support as well for the day
- Strong support: 18425 – 18317
- Major support: 18210 – 17991
- Strong resistance: 18585 – 18684
- Major resistance: 18779 - 18811
MARKET OUTLOOK- 23rd MARCH 2015
Dear Customer,
Markets always tend to be interesting with something or the other happening all the time. Our Morning Mantra is released before the opening bell and it includes the market commentary along with Corporate & Global news for the day.
- U.S. stocks rallied on Friday, with the Nasdaq Composite Index closing at its highest level in 15 years.
| Dow Jones |
18127.7
|
+168.6
|
+0.94%
|
| Dow Futures |
18033.0
|
+148.0
|
+0.83%
|
| Hangseng |
24477.0
|
+101.8
|
+0.42%
|
| Nikkie |
19769.7
|
+209.5
|
+1.07%
|
| SGX Nifty |
8624.0
|
+11.5
|
+0.13%
|
- Asian stocks extended a six-month high after global equities capped their biggest weekly advance since July 2013. Crude oil declined, while wheat traded at a two-month high.
- Market is expected to open on positive note and likely to remain strong during the day.
- India's southwest monsoon is expected to be normal this year, predicts a joint study by the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry and private weather forecaster Skymet. One of the bigger concern currently is decline in rural income and consumption. As such this time it will be more important and positive for corporate dependent on rural economy.
- Aditya Birla group is likely to merge its two loss-making unlisted entities — Aditya Birla Retail, which runs the retail chain More, and Madura Fashion & Lifestyle — with Pantaloons Fashion & Retail, a listed entity. (BS)
- E Sreedharan, known for his role in the development of the Konkan Railway and Delhi Metro Rail said that building metro rails under the Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) or public private partnership (PPP) models is not viable. Metros, he said, are highly capital intensive. For example, if it is an elevated type of Metro, the cost will be something like Rs 200 crore per kilometer. If it is an underground one, it is around Rs 450 crore per kilometer, Sreedharan told IIT Madras students. He said the PPP model was tried in the case of three Metros in India. One was the Airport-line in Delhi Metro, where the entire civil cost was undertaken by the government and only the system cost and the trains were run by another party. Within one and half year, the private partner ( Reliance Infra) abandoned the project. In case of Mumbai Metro phase I, first line of 11 kilometers, inspite of a very heavy ridership, the revenue was not even able to meet the interest liability of the loan taken by the private partner.(Reliance Infra). For Hyderabad Metro, the first attempt to get a private partner was not successful and now L&T has taken up the project. "Since L&T is a very prestigious organisation, they will finish the work. But they will have to pay a very heavy price for taking that private venture," said Sreedharan.
- In a major blow to Jindal Steel & Power , the government said it was rejecting three of its successful bids in the recently-concluded coal block auctions, along with one by Balco.
- Finance Minister Arun Jaitley sought to squelch growing talk of a rift between the government and Reserve Bank over a number of Budget proposals while central bank Governor Raghuram Rajan said he backed the concept of a independent body to manage the government's debt.
- The Delhi high court restrained Glenmark Pharmaceuticals from manufacturing, marketing or selling its anti-diabetes drugs Zita and Zita-Met, saying it has "prima facie" infringed the patent of US drug major Merck Sharp and Dohme (MSD), said media reports. (ET)
- Indian banks will be able to convert debts of defaulting publicly traded borrowers into equity, SEBI said, clearing the way for lenders that are struggling with a surge in bad-loan provisions to wrest management control of defaulters and also in some cases allow distressed firms to improve their cash flows by lowering interest costs.
- NSEL Investors Associations today asked the government to pass the final order for merger of FTIL and NSEL and quickly supersede the current board of FTIL.
- New Delhi Municipal Corporation deferred a decision on starting the process of auctioning the Taj Mahal Hotel, which means the Tatas' Indian Hotels CompanyBSE -4.27 % may get yet another extension to continue operate the hotel for four to five months.
- The Delhi high court on Friday restrained Glenmark Pharmaceuticals from manufacturing, marketing or selling its anti-diabetes drugs Zita and Zita-Met, saying it has "prima facie" infringed the patent of US drug major Merck.
- Gayatri Projects wins order worth `137 cr from Chhattisgarh govt
- Kalyani Forge plans to invest `200 cr on upgrading units
- Federal Bank - Institution Desk: In this report we have tried to soothe the investors’ concerns regarding Federal Bank’s asset quality and the impact of slide in crude oil prices. We have also listed appropriate measures taken by the management to tackle the problems. We have retained Buy rating on Federal Bank with a target price of Rs183. Asset quality – cautious approach yields results: The cautious approach towards corporate lending has started yielding results. Despite aggravated slowdown in the economy, average loan slippage ratio for the past six quarters (2QFY14 to 3QFY15) eased to 1.6% as against an average of 2.9% in the six quarters prior to this (4QFY12 to 1QFY14). Reduction in loan slippage is more appreciable as the bank did not increase its loan book size in FY14. Reduction in loan slippage is witnessed across various segments. Its major area of concern is loan slippage in the large corporate segment, which, in our opinion, the management has addressed efficiently. The bank has consciously allowed a run-off and did not renew a few of its big-ticket size corporate accounts where it was not comfortable with the quality or adequacy of security on those assets. As a result, large corporate loan book declined 22% in FY14 over FY12.
INTRADAY FUT CALL UPDATE
BOOK FULL PROFIT IN BHEL FUT AT 235, 1ST TGT @235 ACHVD, NET PROFIT 5000/- PER LOT
Sunday, March 22, 2015
NIFTY OUTLOOK - 23RD MARCH 2015
Nifty (8570.90, -63.75, -0.74%)
While a number of country’s stock markets including the US market have posted new highs last week, our market showed significant weakness during the week. It appears that more weakness could be in store even in the short term as well as for the medium term since the bullish momentum of the market has suffered substantial reduction for the first time in a year! We could well be headed for a test of the major support area between 8530 and 8470. On the other hand, even if we were to see any recovery in the day’s session, unless you see the Nifty posting a strong close above the 8650-mark such recovering would not matter much but could well be a fresh invitation to the bears to sell again.
While a number of country’s stock markets including the US market have posted new highs last week, our market showed significant weakness during the week. It appears that more weakness could be in store even in the short term as well as for the medium term since the bullish momentum of the market has suffered substantial reduction for the first time in a year! We could well be headed for a test of the major support area between 8530 and 8470. On the other hand, even if we were to see any recovery in the day’s session, unless you see the Nifty posting a strong close above the 8650-mark such recovering would not matter much but could well be a fresh invitation to the bears to sell again.
- Most critical level for the day: 8616, its immediate resistance
- Strong resistance zone: 8627 – 8669
- Major resistance: 8707 – 8727
- Strong support: 8530 – 8470
- Major support: 8448 – 8424
- Bank Nifty (18606.35, -204.80, -1.09%)An index that has more than doubled 110% in less than a year’s time (during the week ending Feb 07, 2014 it showed a low of 9944 while during the week ending Jan 30 it showed a high of 20907) is now showing a pattern on the weekly chart that suggests a deep cut here going forward before another medium term uptrend shapes up. Thus, for investors and position traders it would be worth their while to sell stocks in this sector on any rally.For the day, watch out for the level of 18588, which is going to act as the most critical level for the day. The range between 18588 and 18446 would act as the strong support zone, and the major support between 18295 and 18225. On the way up, major resistance zone begins from 19060, and so long as the 19375-level is taken out decisively all rallies, henceforth, would just be pullback attempts by the bulls to get out at higher levels. This index is going to create major problems for the Nifty as well going forward.
- Most critical level for the day: 18588, its immediate support as well.
- Strong support: 18588 – 18446
- Major support: 18295 – 18225
- Strong resistance: 18813 – 18860
- Major resistance: 19060 – 19150 - 19375
Friday, March 20, 2015
MARKET OUTLOOK 20th MARCH 2015
Dear Customer,
Markets always tend to be interesting with something or the other happening all the time. Our Morning Mantra is released before the opening bell and it includes the market commentary along with Corporate & Global news for the day.
- U.S. stocks fell Thursday, pulling back a day after the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on interest rates spurred strong gains.
| Dow Jones |
17959.0
|
-117.16
|
-0.65%
|
| Dow Futures |
17885.0
|
-104.00
|
-0.58%
|
| Hangseng |
24419.2
|
-49.66
|
-0.20%
|
| Nikkie |
19486.8
|
+10.19
|
+0.05%
|
| SGX Nifty |
8639.5
|
+15.50
|
+0.18%
|
- U.S. stocks fell Thursday, pulling back a day after the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on interest rates spurred strong gains.
- Market is expected to open on flattish note but may advance during the day.
- Axis Bank cuts deposit rates by up to 0.25%
- FTSE changes from 20th March : New additions - Bosch, LIC hsg, Marico, Pidilite, Britannia, Bajaj finserv
- BHEL has won an order for setting up a 120 MW Hydro Electric Project (HEP) in the state of West Bengal, against International Competitive Bidding.
- Force Motors said its promoters have acquired more than 100,000 shares of the company from the open market, thereby increasing their stake to over 60%.
- China's quality watchdog has asked Jaguar Land Rover to recall Range Rover Evoque SUVs, following a media report which said the vehicles used faulty gearboxes. (ET)
- JSW Steel has expressed interest in the 4,004 acres earmarked for Korean steel major Posco's seemingly doomed mega project in Odisha.
- RBI allowed Zicom Electronic Security Systems to raise the limit of investment by NRIs and persons of Indian origins to up to 24% of the company's paid up capital. Existing FII holding is 1.8%
- Coal India Ltd is likely to miss its output target of 507 million tonnes by over 10 MT in the current fiscal on account of various delays at the level of states in operationalising mines. (ET)
- Rajesh Exports Ltd, has bagged an export order worth Rs 1,265 cr of designer range of gold and diamond studded jewellery and medallions from UAE-based Al Sultan Jewellery. The order is to be completed by May 31, 2015.
- LIC has picked up 9.9% stake in rating agency CARE for about Rs428 cr. LIC acquired 28,82,136 shares of the company through a bulk deal.
- Brand Allen Solly from Madura Garments owned by Aditya Birla Group is eyeing a turnover of Rs 1,000 cr in FY16 and Rs 800 cr in FY15. It will be adding 50 new stores across India in FY16.
- Aurobindo Pharma gets tentative approval from USFDA for Lacosamide Tablets. It is under patent drug having sales of ~$600 mn. Patent expiry is in CY22. Sentimentally positive however nothing immediately
- Private banks like Axis bank, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank to increase service charges and penalties. ICICI Bank will charge Rs100 more for non-maintenance of average monthly balance in metros and Rs50 more in semi-urban areas.
- US Monetary Policy: Fed Unlikely To Hike Rates In 2015– Institution Desk: As expected, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) dropped the word ‘patient’ from its statement after the policy meeting on 17-18 March 2015, but this does not imply its impatience. Our analysis of the Fed’s communications since December 2008 reveals that this is for the ninth time it has changed/updated its guidance on interest rates. Taking into account the reality, the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) lowered inflation and economic growth projections (versus its December 2014 forecasts) along with the unemployment rate. This implies that the FOMC expects more slackness in the labour market currently compared to three months ago. More importantly, the FOMC substantially pared its rate hike projection path with as many as 13 members (up from 8 in December 2014) expecting the Federal funds rate to stay <=1% by 2015-end, while 11 participants (up from only four in December 2014) expecting it to be <=2% by 2016-end. The FOMC stressed that while a rate hike is unwarranted at its next meeting scheduled on 28-29 April 2015, all rate decisions at subsequent meetings will be data-driven. This fits well in line with our assessment that the Fed is likely to postpone rate hike to 2016.
INVESTMENT CALL: MANGALAM
BUY MANGALAM DRUG AT 26, TARGET 45
REASON:
1. SALES UP TO 71%
2. NET PROFIT 10 CR. TURNAROUND
3. IPCA HOLD 11% EXPORT CANCER API
4. BIG GROWTH 20% CAGR,
5. FY16 EPS 8
REASON:
1. SALES UP TO 71%
2. NET PROFIT 10 CR. TURNAROUND
3. IPCA HOLD 11% EXPORT CANCER API
4. BIG GROWTH 20% CAGR,
5. FY16 EPS 8
SELL HDIL FUTURE-INTRADAY
SELL HDIL FUTURE [4LOTS] AROUND 100,SL 103, TARGET 94 IN 2-3 DAYS. CMP 100
Thursday, March 19, 2015
COMMODITY MARKET INSIGHT- METAL SPECIAL DATE: 19 MARCH-2015,Tug of war between bulls & bears GOLD
Tug of war between bulls & bears
GOLD
Comex
Gold dived to as low as USD1190/0z last week, but a strong rebound from those
levels kept the prices in a positive tone by forming a “bullish hammer” candlestick pattern on weekly charts.
This signifies that the temporary bottom has formed at the recent lows and
uptrend is intact for the near- future to test 38.2% Fibonacci level of USD1235
level.Hence, any fall can be hold at 1200 mark and bring some buying pressure
from the same. MCX Apr Gold too ended as
a bullish hammer on weekly charts. Further rally can see towards 26560
& 26780 levels, where as a support lies at 26950 levels.
Silver
Silver
settled down -0.12% at 35312 traded in the range as investors await the outcome
of the Federal Reserve policy meet later yesterday, in one of the most
closely-watched monetary policy announcements. Comex Silver recovered and
settled at 15.91 posted one of its strongest gains on Wednesday, rallying in
late-afternoon trading as the U.S. dollar weakened following comments from
Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen. While Ms. Yellen indicated that its
benchmark Federal Funds Rate could be increased later this year, she emphasized
that it will not occur until after the FOMC’s next meeting in April, at the
earliest. Yellen added that the timing
of the decision will be “data dependent,” and that a rate hike will not
necessarily be made in June. Technically now Silver is getting support at 35138
and below same could see a test of 34965 level, And resistance is now likely to
be seen at 36800, a move above could see prices testing 37900
Copper
Copper prices traded on positive path in the month of
February 2015. Copper prices have recovered around 8 percent since
hitting the 5-1/2 year low in January, but the metal used in power and
construction has still fallen some 9 percent so far this year. Trading
companies operating in Shanghai's free trade zone are likely to cut back on
using copper imports as a financing tool as they are now allowed to borrow from
overseas banks more freely. The reduction would further hit China's imports of
copper, which dropped off after Chinese banks tightened credit in the second
half of last year amid probes of an alleged metal financing scam. More than 50
percent of China's refined copper imports in 2012-2013 were linked to financing
deals. Looking ahead, copper
prices may remain in positive path as its prices can trade in range of 350-395
in near term. China
State Bureau Another key driver for
copper demand.
Nickel
Nickel prices ended the month of February
on negative note as prices extended losses on slackening demand and ample
supplies. Prices continued
lower tracking slowdown in china and euro zone concerns. Overall it moved in range of 848-893. Nickel prices can move in range
of 820-950 in the month of March 2015. The supply headwinds for nickel over
the next few years are very real and Indonesia's export ban will give support
in medium to long run. Nickel was in a surplus of 12,700 metric tons in
December, widening from 6,500 tons the previous month, according to
International Nickel Study Group data. Supply outpaced demand last year by
94,300 tons, down 47 percent from a surplus of 178,000 tons in 2013. In the month of March 2015 Nickel
trend will depend on the availability of Nickel ore and demand from steel
sector. Some short covering can be seen in this month. Movement of local
currency is likely to influence its prices on domestic bourses.
Lead
Lead
prices ended on negative note in the month of February 2015.Overall its prices
moved in range of 106.40-116.40 in MCX. It can move in range of 105-110 in the
month of march. The world metals market has been facing headwinds in the last
two years, with industrial production slowing. Tightening liquidity in the face
of the monetary policy normalization by the US Fed has added another dimension
to the challenges.
Despite this, zinc has performed well. Global zinc market fundamentals have been tightening for some time now. They are set to get tighter as supplies are constrained despite the modest growth likely in consumption demand. In March 2015, Zinc and Lead prices will depend upon automobile, construction and infrastructure demand. Moreover situation of cancelled warrants along with stock position will impact the prices.
Despite this, zinc has performed well. Global zinc market fundamentals have been tightening for some time now. They are set to get tighter as supplies are constrained despite the modest growth likely in consumption demand. In March 2015, Zinc and Lead prices will depend upon automobile, construction and infrastructure demand. Moreover situation of cancelled warrants along with stock position will impact the prices.
Zinc
Zinc prices traded with negative bias in
February 2015. Overall zinc prices moved in range of 124-128.65.in MCX. Slow
demand from China and estimates of lower growth by IMF pressurized the prices. In the month of February renewed galvanizing demand can give
support to the prices. Overall it can
move in range of 121-135 in the month of March 2015.Zinc Exchange stocks are drawn down. New mine supplies are not expected to
improve anytime soon as prolonged low prices have discouraged new investments
and existing mines are ageing. At least two mines are set for closure.Environmental rules are also becoming stricter by the day,
and China's producers are seriously affected. If this persists, over the next
two years, zinc inventories are likely to deplete to low levels.
Aluminum
White metal Aluminum ended the month of
January on slightly negative note on slow Chinese demand and drop in crude oil
prices. Overall it moved in range of 108-113. Aluminium
stocks held at three major Japanese ports climbed for a tenth month to hit a
record high at the end of January, as robust imports met tepid domestic demand.
Spot premiums have been below $425 per tonne in Japan due to higher inventories
and as some Japanese companies want to cut their stocks by March 31.Aluminum prices can hover in range of 108-
118 in the month of March 2015. Qatar
Aluminium Sees Demand Rising 6% as Autos Dominate. Qatar
Aluminium, known as Qatalum, built its plant in Qatar with plans to double
production to 1 million tons a year. Automobile companies are targeting
aluminum to reduce emissions and improve fuel efficiency. London
Metal Exchange aims to double cuts to warehouse logjams. In March 2015
aluminum prices are expected to trade on volatile path in near
term. Demand from auto and construction sector along with shortage of
bauxite can give support to the prices.
Crude oil
Crude oil may
open on positive note tracking bounce back in international markets. Overall its prices can move in range of 2750-2850 in near term. Oil
prices jumped more than 5 percent on Wednesday as the dollar fell after the
Federal Reserve indicated it preferred a more gradual path to normalizing U.S. interest rates despite being open to the
first rate hike in almost a decade. efined oil products rallied too, keeping
place with the run-up in crude. U.S. New York ultra-low sulfur diesel and
RBOB gasoline rose nearly 5 percent and 4 percent, respectively. The Fed opened
the door further for an interest rate hike as early as June, ending its pledge
to be "patient" in normalizing monetary policy. But it also made it
clear that it needs to see more gains in the labor market and price growth to
raise rates. U.S. crude inventories rose
9.6 million barrels to a new record of 458.5 million barrels in the week to
March 19, figures from the government-run Energy Information Administration
showed. Natural gas may trade on firm
path on weather concerns as its price can move in range of 170-190.
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