INTRADAY ENERGY CALL:SELL MCX CRUDEOIL BELOW 3020 SL 3045 TARGET 2970 CMP 3021
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Sunday, March 29, 2015
MORNING MANTRA- NIFTY OUTLOOK 30TH MARCH 2015
Nifty (8341.4, -0.75)
Nifty closed almost flat on the last trading day and so did the US markets. The debate continues whether FED will spring its first rate hike later this year. One of the deciding factors will be the improvement in the labour market. March Jobs data will therefore be interesting and a topic of much debate. Next week will be a truncated trading week on account of Easter. It could be a highly volatile week too.
Though Nifty opened above the Thursday closing price on Friday, the first day of the new clearing, at 8396 it quickly shed its early gains after testing the intraday high of 8413 and posted a new low of this downswing when it breached the 8300 level and tested a low of 8269.15. There was a sharp recovery from these levels towards the second half of the day and the index closed almost flat with a loss of 0.75 points making a touchline pattern. This signals that some pull back could be in the offing but certainly confirmation is need on the next trading day. There are telltale signs on the technical charts to tell you we need to be far more watchful about further signs surfacing. The current downswing is already 17 trading days old and its price amplitude is 850 Nifty points. It has fallen way below the short term moving averages so the possibility of either a pullback or flat range bound move is likely. Traders are likely to be less committal since it is a short trading week as markets are closed on Thursday and Friday.
Many major pivotal counters are showing the touchline formation too. This signals that for now the bears should book profits and wait for fresh signals of weakness on the charts before taking short positions again. On the other hand, short covering rally could be sharp and fast, giving a chance for the agile bull traders to make a quick profit but with utmost care and they should liquidate the positions at the first sign of trouble.
Nifty closed almost flat on the last trading day and so did the US markets. The debate continues whether FED will spring its first rate hike later this year. One of the deciding factors will be the improvement in the labour market. March Jobs data will therefore be interesting and a topic of much debate. Next week will be a truncated trading week on account of Easter. It could be a highly volatile week too.
Though Nifty opened above the Thursday closing price on Friday, the first day of the new clearing, at 8396 it quickly shed its early gains after testing the intraday high of 8413 and posted a new low of this downswing when it breached the 8300 level and tested a low of 8269.15. There was a sharp recovery from these levels towards the second half of the day and the index closed almost flat with a loss of 0.75 points making a touchline pattern. This signals that some pull back could be in the offing but certainly confirmation is need on the next trading day. There are telltale signs on the technical charts to tell you we need to be far more watchful about further signs surfacing. The current downswing is already 17 trading days old and its price amplitude is 850 Nifty points. It has fallen way below the short term moving averages so the possibility of either a pullback or flat range bound move is likely. Traders are likely to be less committal since it is a short trading week as markets are closed on Thursday and Friday.
Many major pivotal counters are showing the touchline formation too. This signals that for now the bears should book profits and wait for fresh signals of weakness on the charts before taking short positions again. On the other hand, short covering rally could be sharp and fast, giving a chance for the agile bull traders to make a quick profit but with utmost care and they should liquidate the positions at the first sign of trouble.
- Most critical levels for the day: 8393 (upside) & 8270 (downside)
- Strong support: 8309 – 8265 - 8240
- Major support: 8165 – 8109
- Strong resistance: 8380 - 8416 – 8448
- Major resistance: 8510 – 8565
Bank Nifty (18044.8, +213.15)
This index has been showing much more weakness than the Nifty for the past few days but the signs of a reversal are stronger in the bank nifty chart; most of the major bank charts are also showing the touchline formation and unless it is negated by the price movement on Monday, there would be hope for a pullback. It tested a low of 17719.35 before recovering to close the day on a positive note with a gain of 213 points on the first day of the new clearing. On the other hand, if it were to fall below 17605 – 17562 support area it would be headed for a test of the major support zone between 17165 and 17022. All this goes to show what the Chinese proverb says: we are in for interesting times!
- Most critical levels for the day: 18200 ( upside) and 17860 (downside)
- Strong support: 17700 - 17605 – 17562
- Major support: 17165 – 17022
- Strong resistance: 18100 – 18200
- Major resistance: 18375 – 18446 - 18510
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