RECOMMENDATION

1. BUY HERO MOTO COMP FUT @2390, SL 2340, TARGET 2450

2. BUY UPL IN CASH @ 431, SL 420, TARGET 450

3. BUY BANK NIFTY FUT @ 18400, SL 18200, TARGET 18650

4. BUY GBPINR @ 94.60, SL 94.30, TARGET 95.50

5. BUY CRUDE OIL @ 3550, SL 3480, TARGET 3750

6. BUY ZINC AT 140, SL 138.50, TARGET 143

7. SELL MCX SILVER AT 36300, SL 36800, TARGET 35300


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MARKET OUTLOOK, 22 APRIL, 2015

Dear Customer,

 

Markets always tend to be interesting with something or the other happening all the time. Our Morning Mantra is released before the opening bell and it includes the market commentary along with Corporate & Global news for the day.

 

• U.S. stocks were a mixed bag on Tuesday, with the Dow ending lower after a handful of uninspiring earnings reports while the Nasdaq closed near a record high following a proposed biotech merger.

Dow Jones	17949.6	-85.3	-0.47%
Dow Futures	17883.0	-60.0	-0.33%
Hangseng	28008.0	+157.5	+0.57%
Nikkie	20123.4	+214.3	+1.08%
SGX Nifty	8397.0	-15.0	-0.18%

 

• Japanese stocks extended a seven-year high, leading a gauge of Asian equities higher for a second day. Oil dropped, while Australia’s dollar climbed after data showed faster-than-estimated inflation.
• Market is expected to open on flattish note but may advance during the day.
• Century Textiles may spinoff cement asssets and merge with UltraTech in an all share deal
• Cimmco gets licence for manufacturing defence equipment
• Bajaj Finance to raise Rs.1400cr through QIP and will issue 9.25 lakh convertable warrent to promoter

 

• Results Announced

Wipro	Result inline but guidance for next qtr is lower. $ IT revenue came at 1774cr and constant currency revenue came at $1818 at the lower end of guidance of $1814-1850mn. EBIT Came ahead of exp at 2426cr vs exp 2376 PAT came at 2142cr vs exp 2168cr. Wipro has guided for revenue of $1765 -1793mn implies de-growth at lower end of guidance. Share is trading at 15.22 PE for FY16 earning
Symphony	Result is in-line
Persistent	Result marginally below exp. $ revenue came at $80.03mn v/s exp 81.8mn Rs. revenue came at Rs.497cr vs exp 506 EBITDA came at 100cr vs exp 101cr PAT came at 76cr vs exp 70cr. Share is trading at 16.9 PE of FY16 earning which is reasonable
VST Inds	Result improved Sales came at 218cr vs qoq 196 yoy 189cr EBITDA came at 64.6cr vs qoq 48.8cr yoy 63.8cr PAT came at 40.69cr vs qoq 30.4cr yoy 51.9cr Qtr EPS Rs.26.34
Wendt	Result is good
DIC India	Result good. Sales came at 172cr vs qoq 182 yoy 176cr EBITDA came at 11.12cr vs qoq 3.05cr yoy -2.91cr. PAT came at 5.67cr vs qoq 1.38cr yoy loss of -7.5cr Qtr EPS is Rs.6.19
Tayo Rolls	Result continue to remain weak

 

• Result to be Announced (PAT Rs cr)

22-Apr	Mar'14	Dec'14	Expectation	NB Insti
Supreme Petrochem Ltd.	9.637	-58.941	na	na
Yes Bank Ltd.	430.2	540.3	553.7	na
Clariant Chemicals (India) Ltd.	15.13	844.07	na	na
Everest Industries Ltd.	3.04	1.14	na	na
KSB Pumps Ltd.	15.13	9.97	17.2	na
Mastek Ltd.	11.3	8.7	6.2	na
Rallis India Ltd.	19.3	25.49	23.1	na

 

  

Happy Trading

 

For feedback/clarifications, simply drop us a mail at adamcapitalfinancial@gmail.com

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NIFTY OUTLOOK, 22 APRIL, 2015

Nifty (8377.75, -70.35, -0.83%)
The index falls for five consecutive sessions! The minor pullback attempt was thwarted by late session selling. However, there is a sign on the end-of-day candlestick chart that the fierce downswing might taper off today and we could see a renewed attempt at a pullback again. To really see this happening the bulls need to take out the level of 8420 level and sustain the index above that mark for any failure to do so would result in another unsuccessful attempt at staging a pullback. If there were to be a pullback then we need to watch out that if it manages to push the Nifty, in the anticipated counter swing going forward, beyond 8550 through 8610, a potentially very strong supply zone; only if it were to do so then the bulls would retain a fighting chance to continue taking the market higher else any higher levels than 8450 would be a tempting invitation for the bears to press the sell button again. In case, the Nifty slips below the 8350-mark and stay there the potential for a pullback would diminish considerably and we should be expecting further lower levels and a retest of the recent low at 8269.

• Most critical level for the day: 8420


• Strong resistance: 8470 – 8525


• Major resistance: 8553 – 8631


• Strong support: 8350 – 8305


• Major support: 8269 – 8244

Bank Nifty (18105.75, -7.00, -0.04%)

This index did not post a fresh low yesterday in its current downswing—it did not breach the low of Monday at 17984. The important thing for this index is to get past the critical zone supply zone between 18175 and 18210—only if it were to successfully take out this zone it would climb further up. On the way up, the levels between 18314 and 18375 would be another potential supply zone to watch out for. However, for a turnaround of its fortunes you need to see the bank bulls taking the index beyond 18463 through 18534 major resistance zone.

• Most critical range for the day: 18175 - 18210


• Strong support: 18010 - 17985


• Strong resistance: 18315 - 18375


• Major support: 17719 - 17584


• Major resistance: 18463 - 18534

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MARKET OUTLOOK 17TH APRIL, 2015

Dear Customer,

 

Markets always tend to be interesting with something or the other happening all the time. Our Morning Mantra is released before the opening bell and it includes the market commentary along with Corporate & Global news for the day.

 

• U.S. stocks were little changed, after the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index neared a record, as semiconductors declined on SanDisk Corp. results to offset a rally in Netflix Inc.

Dow Jones	18105.8	-6.8	-0.04%
Dow Futures	18041.0	+19.0	+0.11%
Hangseng	27802.5	+62.8	+0.23%
Nikkie	19785.7	-100.1	-0.50%
SGX Nifty	8716.0	+5.0	+0.06%

 

• Most Asian stocks fell after the regional benchmark index closed Thursday at a seven-year high. Japanese shares slid to pare a third weekly advance
• Market is expected to open on flattish note and likely to remain range bound during the day.
• American private equity fund KKR has sold its entire 2.5% stake in Bharti Infratel
• Sandoz has got USFDA approval for generic Copaxone (sole generic). Natco- Mylan is likely to receive approval soon in a market likely to have 3 players for 2-3 qtrs atleast. Dr Reddys has also filed for the product. Positive for Natco
• Sun Pharmaceutical has inked a pact with Israel's Technion university to develop anti-cancer drugs.

• MRF Limited plans to invests an additional Rs 980 crore to expand the tyre manufacturing plant located in Medak district, near Hyderabad.

• M&M is in the final stages of negotiations to buy Italian auto-design firm Pininfarina SpA

• Government to divest 15% stake in MMTC
• Hitachi is setting up a plant in Chennai for Valve Timing Control Systems.Plant to cost Rs313 Cr
• Skymet expect monsoon to be notmal and earlier than normal date

 

• Results Announced

Gruh Finance	Result below expectation
TCS	TCS result is in line with expectation. Apparently result looks weak on account of one time Rs.2628cr reward to employee, excluding that $revenue came at 3900mn vs exp 3941mn Rupee sales came at 24220cr vs exp 24527 EBITDA came at Rs.6909cr vs exp 6962cr PAT came at 5773cr vs exp 5396cr. Volume growth came at 1.6% Management has indicated NASCOM guidance of growth for industry at 12-14% can be achieved which is lower than FY15 $ revenue growth of 15%. TCS is trading at 21PE of FY16 earning as compared to 18.4PE of Infosys
Indusind Bank - Insti	IndusInd Bank’s 4QFY15 profit beat our estimate by 12%. Its bottom-line grew 25% YoY on the back of a healthy pre-provision profit growth of 18% and reasonable credit costs. Net interest income (NII) grew 18%, driven by a credit growth of 25% and stable net interest margin (NIM) of 3.7%. Non-interest income grew 26%, with higher traction witnessed in distribution fees, investment banking fees and trade and remittance fees, which were up 65%, 41% and 33%, respectively. The cost-to-income ratio improved 110bps sequentially to 46.3%. Loan slippage for the quarter was higher at 2.6%, mainly on account of three standard stress accounts classified as non-performing assets or NPAs and sold to an asset reconstruction company (ARC). Annualised credit costs stood at 49bps for the quarter and 51bps for FY15 as against the bank’s guidance of 60bps. We have increased our FY17 ABV estimate by 3%, factoring in higher NIM and better traction in fee income. We have retained our Buy rating on the stock, increasing our target price on it to Rs1,075 (Rs975 earlier) and valuing it at 4.0x P/ABV FY17E numbers.
Jay Bharat Maruti	Result is declining
Mindtree	Result is in line with expectation $ revenue came at 147.8mn vs exp 147mn. Sales came at Rs.918cr vs exp 917cr EBITDA came at 178cr vs exp 184cr PAT came at Rs.129cr vs exp 133cr. Share is trading at 22x PE FY16 earning which seem costlier.

 

• Result to be Announced (PAT Rs cr)

17-Apr	Mar'14	Dec'14	Expectation	NB Insti
CRISIL Ltd.	68.71	70.79	73.9	81.9
Delta Corp Ltd.	3.1	-0.4	na	na
Agro Tech Foods Ltd.	13.0	9.4	9.1	na
RS Software (India) Ltd.	16.0	17.1	na	na
Reliance Industries Ltd.	5631.0	5085.0	5931.5	na
18-Apr
LIC Housing Finance Ltd	370.02	344.35	390.56	na
Titagarh Wagons Ltd	1.8	9.2	na	na

 

NIFTY OUTLOOK, 17TH APRIL, 2015

Nifty (8706.70, -43.50, -0.50%)
While the fall in the Nifty has just been half a percentage point and the late recovery from sub-8650 level suggested some probable bounce back in today’s session, the index option statistics seem to pour cold water on that since the large number of fresh call writing for 8700 and 8800 strike prices amply indicate that the weakness signs are unlikely to disappear so soon. This coupled with massive bull liquidation in the 8700 and 8800-strike Jan Nifty put options also indicate that the bulls had been on much shaky ground than they had been even a few days back. Unless the range between 8735 and 8740 gets taken out decisively, it would be an uphill task for the bulls to push things up at least from a Nifty centered perspective.

• Most critical levels for the day: 8735 – 8740 (upside) & 8687 – 8669 (downside)


• Strong resistance: 8778 – 8804


• Major resistance: 8849 – 8891


• Strong support: 8623 – 8604


• Major support zone: 8558 – 8523

Bank Nifty (18637.05, -79.25, -0.42%)

Here is a sector index that is not looking very weak it showed even-stevens for warring parties on both sides. If the the range between 18453 and 18410 is ably defended by the bulls then we would see some recovery worth talking about. The above support zone is very critical for the Bank Nifty since any failure to sustain above such range would invite bears to sell again afresh or otherwise. On the way up, 18900 through 19200 range would act as a major resistance zone for now; unless cleared it would nip any recovery attempt in the bud while if the support of 18450 through 18400 gets taken out then the last support, before we see sub-18000 levels, is at 18200. Any major weakness developing now would mean a test of 17600 through 17300 very strong support area.

• Most critical level for the day: 18557


• Strong resistance: 18779 – 18900


• Major resistance: 19050 – 19185


• Strong support: 18453 – 18410


• Major support: 18200 - 17990

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Investment Recommendation

VRL Logistics Ltd 

VRL Logistics Ltd – IPO Note

Price Band – Rs.195-Rs.205

Recommendation – SUBSCRIBE to the issue for listing gain as well as long term investment

 

VRL logistics Ltd (VRL) , a Karnataka based company is one of the leading pan-India surface logistics and parcel delivery service providers. VRL enjoys a wide distribution network in 28 states and 4 union territories comprising of 624 branches( incl 48 hubs) and 346 agencies. The company has its in-house preventive maintenance facility at Hubballi, Karnataka. In goods transport business the company serves a wide range of customers like FMCG, Imperishable goods, pharmaceutical products , machines etc
 
Between FY10-14 VRL’s revenues grew at CAGR of 20.4% while EBIDTA grew at a CAGR of 10.7%. Going forward, with high capex and increase in number of vehicles, we expect the company to continue exhibiting high growth trend and Lower fuel prices would support to the increase in margin. Moreover, the high growth in the industry coupled with shift from unorganized to organized player will also fuel and support growth for company. On the valuation front, at the given upper band price of issue of Rs 205, VRL is offered at PE of 19.6 its post issue diluted FY15 EPS and 7.6x of its FY15 EV/EBIDTA which is lower than its peer. We recommend subscribing to the issue for listing gain as well as long term investment.

MARKET OUTLOOK- 15TH APRIL : 2015

Dear Customer,

 

Markets always tend to be interesting with something or the other happening all the time. Our Morning Mantra is released before the opening bell and it includes the market commentary along with Corporate & Global news for the day.

 

• The Dow and S&P 500 ended higher on Tuesday, helped by energy stocks and March-quarter earnings reports that topped modest expectations following worries about a strong dollar.

Dow Jones	18036.7	+59.7	+0.33%
Dow Futures	17964.0	+54.0	+0.30%
Hangseng	27674.4	+112.9	+0.41%
Nikkie	19909.1	+0.5	+0.00%
SGX Nifty	8842.5	+14.5	+0.16%

 

• Asian share markets took a cautious stance on Wednesday ahead of an anxiously-awaited reading on China's growth pulse, while the dollar nursed losses after a disappointing reading on consumer spending nudged bond yields lower.
• Market is expected to open on flattish note but may see some profit booking during the day.
• Skipper Limited is looking to expand production of PVC pipe to 100,000 tonne in next three years from current 10,000 tonnes. Moreover, in order to cater to the western region of India, the company has commissioned manufacturing facility at Ahmedabad in Gujarat.
• Ipca Laboratories, which intends to buy a majority stake in Hyderabad-based Krebs Biochemicals, will start its open offer today to acquire the mandatory 26% shares from the public. With the existing share price of Krebs being far higher than the open offer price of Rs 54, the company may face troubles in buying the targeted quantity.
• SC directs Deccan Chronicle to sell properties to repay Indiabulls loan. In 2013, IHFL had taken possession of two residential and three commercial properties mortgaged by DCHL after it defaulted on its payments for loan of about Rs 100 cr
• Escorts Limited has entered into a joint venture with Amul Group for manufacturing 'Steeltrac' - a specialty tractor. Escorts will hold 40% in the new company and Amul Group the rest of the equity.
• Deepak fertiliser sells 12.1% stake in MCFL for an estimated Rs 125.69 crore, through the open market route.
• Gateway Distriparks is aiming to list its rail unit unit Gateway Rail Freight by the end of the current year and can value unit at nearly $500 million
• Torrent Pharmaceuticals is close to sealing deal to acquire dermatology business of Encore group for Rs 350 Cr plus – TOI
• Bosch Will Lift Lockout At its Jaipur Plant w.e.f. First Shift Of April 15
• Bajaj Auto Launches New Pulsar Series Of Bikes and priced Pulsar AS200 At Rs 91,500 and Pulsar AS15O At Rs 79,000
• ICICI Bank has cut home loan rate by 25 bps and Axis Bank has cut it by 20 bps
• Alstom T&D India Gets Order Worth Rs 56.9 Cr Form BARC For Its Challakere Unit In Karnataka
• Muthoot Finance Group has entered into the home loan segment with the launch of Muthoot Homfin
• DHFL reduced its home loan rate by 25 basis points to 9.9%
• JLR has reported its strongest ever March retail sales at 58,481 unit +6% yoy
• ABG Shipyard would bring an equal partner in the business by mid-August. This is expected to help the debt-burdened firm focus on defence-sector orders. "There are two roles to be played here. One of an investor, the other who has the technical know-how. We may have either one entity doing both roles or two entities carrying out the two roles. We are still in talks and are yet to decide that," an official of ABG Shipyard told the Business Standard.
• Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation eased to 5.17% in March, the lowest in three months, aided by lower food prices. For February, CPI inflation stood at 5.37%, January 5.19% and March 2014 8.25%.
• Capital Goods – Sector Preview – Institution Desk: We expect a selective recovery in corporate earnings for the fourth quarter ended March 2015, which is seasonally the strongest quarter for the capital goods sector. Revenue growth is likely to be soft owing to a relatively weak order book amid lack of industrial capex revival. Various cost optimisation measures are likely to lead to an improvement in the margin profile of most companies, albeit on a low base. While the companies in our coverage universe are expected to post 6%/38%/43% YoY decline in revenue/EBITDA/PAT, respectively, the numbers are largely suppressed because of the underperformance of Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL). Excluding BHEL, we expect our coverage universe to report a 5% YoY growth in revenue along with a 14% YoY rise in EBITDA (50bps rise in operating margin) and a 15% YoY increase in PAT (30bps rise in net profit margin). Management commentaries on ground-level improvement in industrial capex and the outlook on new order inflow and price realisation will be keenly monitored.   
• Information Technology – Sector Initiating Coverage – Institution Desk: We initiate coverage on the Indian IT services sector with a negative view and expect a market cap-weighted return of -7% till March 2016. We expect the sector to grow at 8%-10% rate over FY15E-FY18E in US dollar (USD) terms, at least 200bps-400bps below current consensus estimate with a downside risk. The sector’s growth, in our view, will be under pressure from: (1) Low IT spending because of tepid sales growth across enterprises in developed countries, and (2) Value/volume compression within the legacy business (likely >50% of revenue) because of increased automation and intense competition on convergence of capabilities/strategies among Tier-1 Indian players. ‘Digital’ is not going to move the needle materially.

 

• Results Announced

ACC	ACC result improved Though Sales came lower at Rs.2885cr vs exp 3112cr yoy 2967cr Adj EBITDA came ahead of exp at  Rs. 469cr vs exp 401 yoy 425cr. Adj PAT came at Rs.255cr vs exp 226 yoy 396cr (Mar-14 PAT high on a/c of tax reversal and higher other income)
8k Miles	Result is ok
DCB	DCB Bank result good NII came at 130cr vs qoq 122cr and yoy 100cr yoy growth of 30%. Profit before provisioning came at Rs.68cr qoq Rs.68cr yoy 50cr yoy increase of 35%. Provision came at 14cr vs qoq 18cr yoy 11cr. PAT increased substentially to Rs. 63cr vs qoq Rs.43cr yoy 39cr on account of w/back of tax. Gross NPA came at Rs.186cr vs qoq 179cr and yoy 138cr. FY15 EPS is Rs.7.21 PE is 16x P/BV is 2.11 and ROE is 12.5%

 

• Result to be Announced (PAT Rs cr)

Companies	Mar’14	Dec’14	Mar’15 Exp
Network 18 Media	-4.1	-12.2	na
TV18 Broadcast Ltd.	35.9	60.4	na
RIIL	6.7	5.3	na

 

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