Tug of war between bulls & bears
GOLD
Comex
Gold dived to as low as USD1190/0z last week, but a strong rebound from those
levels kept the prices in a positive tone by forming a “bullish hammer” candlestick pattern on weekly charts.
This signifies that the temporary bottom has formed at the recent lows and
uptrend is intact for the near- future to test 38.2% Fibonacci level of USD1235
level.Hence, any fall can be hold at 1200 mark and bring some buying pressure
from the same. MCX Apr Gold too ended as
a bullish hammer on weekly charts. Further rally can see towards 26560
& 26780 levels, where as a support lies at 26950 levels.
Silver
Silver
settled down -0.12% at 35312 traded in the range as investors await the outcome
of the Federal Reserve policy meet later yesterday, in one of the most
closely-watched monetary policy announcements. Comex Silver recovered and
settled at 15.91 posted one of its strongest gains on Wednesday, rallying in
late-afternoon trading as the U.S. dollar weakened following comments from
Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen. While Ms. Yellen indicated that its
benchmark Federal Funds Rate could be increased later this year, she emphasized
that it will not occur until after the FOMC’s next meeting in April, at the
earliest. Yellen added that the timing
of the decision will be “data dependent,” and that a rate hike will not
necessarily be made in June. Technically now Silver is getting support at 35138
and below same could see a test of 34965 level, And resistance is now likely to
be seen at 36800, a move above could see prices testing 37900
Copper
Copper prices traded on positive path in the month of
February 2015. Copper prices have recovered around 8 percent since
hitting the 5-1/2 year low in January, but the metal used in power and
construction has still fallen some 9 percent so far this year. Trading
companies operating in Shanghai's free trade zone are likely to cut back on
using copper imports as a financing tool as they are now allowed to borrow from
overseas banks more freely. The reduction would further hit China's imports of
copper, which dropped off after Chinese banks tightened credit in the second
half of last year amid probes of an alleged metal financing scam. More than 50
percent of China's refined copper imports in 2012-2013 were linked to financing
deals. Looking ahead, copper
prices may remain in positive path as its prices can trade in range of 350-395
in near term. China
State Bureau Another key driver for
copper demand.
Nickel
Nickel prices ended the month of February
on negative note as prices extended losses on slackening demand and ample
supplies. Prices continued
lower tracking slowdown in china and euro zone concerns. Overall it moved in range of 848-893. Nickel prices can move in range
of 820-950 in the month of March 2015. The supply headwinds for nickel over
the next few years are very real and Indonesia's export ban will give support
in medium to long run. Nickel was in a surplus of 12,700 metric tons in
December, widening from 6,500 tons the previous month, according to
International Nickel Study Group data. Supply outpaced demand last year by
94,300 tons, down 47 percent from a surplus of 178,000 tons in 2013. In the month of March 2015 Nickel
trend will depend on the availability of Nickel ore and demand from steel
sector. Some short covering can be seen in this month. Movement of local
currency is likely to influence its prices on domestic bourses.
Lead
Lead
prices ended on negative note in the month of February 2015.Overall its prices
moved in range of 106.40-116.40 in MCX. It can move in range of 105-110 in the
month of march. The world metals market has been facing headwinds in the last
two years, with industrial production slowing. Tightening liquidity in the face
of the monetary policy normalization by the US Fed has added another dimension
to the challenges.
Despite this, zinc has performed well. Global zinc market fundamentals have been tightening for some time now. They are set to get tighter as supplies are constrained despite the modest growth likely in consumption demand. In March 2015, Zinc and Lead prices will depend upon automobile, construction and infrastructure demand. Moreover situation of cancelled warrants along with stock position will impact the prices.
Despite this, zinc has performed well. Global zinc market fundamentals have been tightening for some time now. They are set to get tighter as supplies are constrained despite the modest growth likely in consumption demand. In March 2015, Zinc and Lead prices will depend upon automobile, construction and infrastructure demand. Moreover situation of cancelled warrants along with stock position will impact the prices.
Zinc
Zinc prices traded with negative bias in
February 2015. Overall zinc prices moved in range of 124-128.65.in MCX. Slow
demand from China and estimates of lower growth by IMF pressurized the prices. In the month of February renewed galvanizing demand can give
support to the prices. Overall it can
move in range of 121-135 in the month of March 2015.Zinc Exchange stocks are drawn down. New mine supplies are not expected to
improve anytime soon as prolonged low prices have discouraged new investments
and existing mines are ageing. At least two mines are set for closure.Environmental rules are also becoming stricter by the day,
and China's producers are seriously affected. If this persists, over the next
two years, zinc inventories are likely to deplete to low levels.
Aluminum
White metal Aluminum ended the month of
January on slightly negative note on slow Chinese demand and drop in crude oil
prices. Overall it moved in range of 108-113. Aluminium
stocks held at three major Japanese ports climbed for a tenth month to hit a
record high at the end of January, as robust imports met tepid domestic demand.
Spot premiums have been below $425 per tonne in Japan due to higher inventories
and as some Japanese companies want to cut their stocks by March 31.Aluminum prices can hover in range of 108-
118 in the month of March 2015. Qatar
Aluminium Sees Demand Rising 6% as Autos Dominate. Qatar
Aluminium, known as Qatalum, built its plant in Qatar with plans to double
production to 1 million tons a year. Automobile companies are targeting
aluminum to reduce emissions and improve fuel efficiency. London
Metal Exchange aims to double cuts to warehouse logjams. In March 2015
aluminum prices are expected to trade on volatile path in near
term. Demand from auto and construction sector along with shortage of
bauxite can give support to the prices.
Crude oil
Crude oil may
open on positive note tracking bounce back in international markets. Overall its prices can move in range of 2750-2850 in near term. Oil
prices jumped more than 5 percent on Wednesday as the dollar fell after the
Federal Reserve indicated it preferred a more gradual path to normalizing U.S. interest rates despite being open to the
first rate hike in almost a decade. efined oil products rallied too, keeping
place with the run-up in crude. U.S. New York ultra-low sulfur diesel and
RBOB gasoline rose nearly 5 percent and 4 percent, respectively. The Fed opened
the door further for an interest rate hike as early as June, ending its pledge
to be "patient" in normalizing monetary policy. But it also made it
clear that it needs to see more gains in the labor market and price growth to
raise rates. U.S. crude inventories rose
9.6 million barrels to a new record of 458.5 million barrels in the week to
March 19, figures from the government-run Energy Information Administration
showed. Natural gas may trade on firm
path on weather concerns as its price can move in range of 170-190.
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