DAILY NIFTY OUTLOOK, 8TH OCT 2015

Nifty October futures (8194.65)(+34.1):
Volatility continued despite a small range day for Nifty future as it consolidated the gains of the past few days and moved range bound between 8200 and 8150 for the better part of the day with occasional spikes on both sides. It was an almost flat opening for the index. Its swing up was resisted in the 8200 region every time it attempted to cross it. The session ended in a rally and it closed the day on a firm note leading to expectation that the rally is likely to continue today and at least the opening will be on a positive note. There is a high probability that nifty future will open above the 8200 level and if this level gives support on dips, we may consider that the long term uptrend has been confirmed. If, however, this level fails to hold on dips or closing basis, chances are that the lower supports will be tested once again.

8170-8150 is currently the strong support below which 8115-8105 is the next important support zone. The critical level now is around 7980-8000 and a decisive breach of this region will see the bears returning to the centres stage again. However, given the strength of the markets, an immediate test of this region seems less likely.

• Resistance: 8200, 8225, 8245, 8275, 8300, 8324, 8350


• Support: 8170, 8115-8105, 8060, 8040, 7985, 7960, 7897-7900, 7880, 7820, 7765, 7714

Bank Nifty October Futures (17689.05) (+16.3):

It was a dull trading day for this index as it moved within a small range which may be technically termed as an inside day as its range was encompasses within the range of the previous day. This will assume significance today as it may give a large move in the direction of the breakout, which, given the market mood, could be on the higher side. It closed the day with modest gains. Since the closing is almost flat, our earlier view and levels remains the same. 

It has come up against an important resistance zone between 17745 and 17887. 17745 is the immediate resistance. It is also the critical level since the 200 exponential moving average is posited in this region and the long term uptrend will be confirmed if Bank nifty future closes decisively above this level. The levels of 17793, 17855, 17887 are important hurdles which need to be crossed on closing basis for fresh momentum, which could lead to the 18000 region. On the lower side, 17625, 17570 are good supports but 17520 is the important support region and as long as this level holds on declines, the bulls will continue to have advantage. A breach of this important support could lead to a retest of the lower levels once again. 17300 is the critical support for now and a decisive breach of this level could lead to fresh panic unwinding.

• Resistance: 17745, 17793-17800, 17855, 17887-17900, 17998-18000, 18137


• Support: 17700, 17625, 17580, 17500, 17414, 17366, 17300, 17260, 17200, 17170, 17158

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daily market outlook- 8 OCT 205

Dear Customer,

 

Markets always tend to be interesting with something or the other happening all the time. Our Morning Mantra is released before the opening bell and it includes the market commentary along with Corporate & Global news for the day.

 

• U.S. stocks paused Tuesday, closing moderately lower after five straight days of gains. DuPont and energy companies rose sharply, but the overall market was weighed down by health-care stocks, especially biotechnology companies.

Dow Jones	16790.2	+13.8	+0.08%
Dow Jones Fut	16639.0	-33.0	-0.20%
Hangseng	22003.3	+171.7	+0.79%
Nikkie	18155.6	-30.5	-0.17%
SGX Nifty	8166.5	+1.5	+0.02%

 

• Asian stocks held firm on Wednesday as a sharp rebound in oil prices supported battered resource shares and emerging economy currencies, while Japanese markets were tentative ahead of a crucial Bank of Japan policy meeting.
• Market is expected to open on a flattish note and likely to remain range bound during the day.
• Maharashtra would soon initiate the process of taking back the Latur, Osmanabad, Nanded, Yavatmal and Baramati airports awarded to Reliance Airport Developmentin August 2009 for development.
• Uflex, has decided to invest Rs 1,500-crore packaging plant at Sanand, citing proximity to customers such as Nestle, Nivea, Colgate, among others
• Anil Ambani-led Reliance Mediaworks has sold 9.75% stake in media services major Prime Focus for over Rs 155 crore through an open market transaction
• Phoenix Mills Ltd has acquired the entire 19.38 per cent equity stake held by MTX Hotels in Gangetic Hotels Private Limited (GHPL).
• Aurobindo Pharma Likely To Launch QIP Issue Today, Looking To Raise $250-300 m Total Equity Dilution Around 3-4% On Post Basis
• Institution Desk - FMCG Sector-September 2015 Quarter Result Preview- Raw Material Cost Decline To Boost Margins: Sales growth for the September 2015 quarter is likely to be around 7%-8% YoY for Colgate-Palmolive (India) or CPIL, GlaxoSmithKline Consumer or GSK Consumer and United Breweries, while it is expected to decline sharply YoY again for Nestle India because of the Maggi noodle problem and grow 15%-16% YoY in case of P&G Hygiene and Healthcare or P&GHH and Britannia Industries or BIL (the former despite a high base, and the latter aided by a low base) and grow by 20% in case of Westlife Development (WDL) and 27% YoY for Jubilant FoodWorks (the latter aided by a likely healthy same-store sales growth (SSG) of 6%-7% because of a low base). Barring Nestle India, United Breweries and WDL, the last of which is likely to report a small positive EBITDA compared to loss at the EBITDA level in the corresponding quarter a year ago, all other companies are expected to report healthy EBITDA growth ranging from 17.6%  to  50.0% YoY, mainly because of a decline in raw material costs. EBITDA and PAT are likely to decline YoY in case of Nestle India and remain tepid for United Breweries. WDL is likely to report sustained loss at the net level in FY16. For CPIL, P&GHH and Jubilant FoodWorks, despite healthy EBITDA growth YoY, PAT growth is likely to be around 11%-13% because of a low tax rate in base quarter of the previous year.  For BIL and GlaxoSmithKline Consumer, healthy EBITDA growth YoY is also likely to percolate down to the PAT level as well.

 

• Results to be announced (PAT Rs cr)

7-Oct	Sept'14	June'15	Expectation
Bajaj Corp Ltd.	37.4	47.5	49.5

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DAILY NIFTY OUTLOOK, 21ST AUG, 2015

Nifty August futures (8380.05)(-125.35):
Nifty future opened in the negative, rallied to a high of 8506.35 but turned negative thereafter and post noon dropped to a low of 8358.4. There was modest pull back in the end of session and it closed the day deep in the red. 8345 is the immediate support and a decisive breach of this region will spell more trouble for the bulls as it will bring in more supplies. A test of 8310 where the 200 exponential moving average is posited seems likely and if this region holds out, some relief rally may be expected. A decisive breach of this region will be significant as this region has given support since July, it is a long term moving average as well as an important retracement level and a decisive breach of it could lead to fresh panic. On the higher side, 8397-8400 is the immediate resistance and it must sustain decisively above this region to signal halt in the downswing. 8436, 8453, 8470, 8485, 8500 all are supply points which needs to be absorbed for upswing.

• Resistance: 8397-8400, 8436, 8453, 8470, 8485, 8500, 8515, 8540, 8562, 8590, 8612


• Support: 8370, 8355, 8305-8300, 8290, 8254, 8215-8200

Bank Nifty August futures (18309.6) (-421.3):

Opening session for Bank Nifty futures was volatile and weak. It posted the high of 18743 in the opening session itself after a negative opening. Post noon it fell sharply to a low of 18240.75. There was a weak recovery in the end of session and it closed the day, deep in the red. The breakout happened in the lower side and as feared, it was a directional move thereafter. 18300 and 18240 are immediate supports and if breached it may move down to 18200, 18140, 18085, 18000 region. The 200 day exponential moving average is posted around 18000 and some consolidation is likely in this region. If however, this level fails to contain the fall, fresh panic offering may be expected. On the higher side, 18335 is the immediate resistance and a failure to move above this region decisively could lead it to lower targets. But if this region is reclaimed, a pullback rally mainly on short covering may be expected. It must sustain decisively above 18800 to signal fresh upswing.

• Resistance: 18335, 18400, 18475, 18500, 18520, 18600-18609, 18630, 18665, 18700, 18760, 18780, 18800, 18815, 18890, 18920


• Support: 18300, 18240, 18200, 18140, 18085, 18000, 17980, 17920-17900, 17825

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DAILY MARKET AND SENTIMENTS OUTLOOK, 21ST AUG, 2015

Dear Customer,

 

Markets always tend to be interesting with something or the other happening all the time. Our Morning Mantra is released before the opening bell and it includes the market commentary along with Corporate & Global news for the day.

 

• U.S. stocks suffered their worst selloff in 2015 on Thursday as markets were buffeted by worries about a slowdown in global growth.

Dow Jones	16990.7	-358.0	-2.06%
Dow Futures	16795.0	-122.0	-0.72%
Hangseng	22270.8	-486.7	-2.14%
Nikkie	19612.9	-420.6	-2.10%
SGX Nifty	8277.5	-100.5	-1.20%

 

• Asian stocks tumbled, extending the worst week for global equities in nine months, as a gauge of Chinese manufacturing plunged to the lowest since 2009. Gold extended gains.
• Market is expected to open on negative note and likely to be under selling pressure during the day.
• Maruti Suzuki has raised prices by Rs 3,000 to Rs 9,000 across products, barring the recently launched S-Cross. The increase became effective August 11. The increase comes after a gap of nearly two years. When the company hiked prices in January this year, it was on account of an increase in excise duty.
• Infosys has launched three new services which, it said, would work as a catalyst in positioning it as a next-generation services company. The three initiatives together would be known as ‘Aikido’, name of a popular Japanese martial art.
• KIOCL Ltd, a mini ratna PSU under the Union ministry of steel, plans to establish a pellet plant of one million tonne per annum (mtpa) capacity through a joint venture (JV) with Andhra Pradesh Mineral Development Corporation (APMDC) in Ananthpur district (Andhra Pradesh). The pellet plant, to cost Rs 1000 crore, is expected to be operational in 2017.
• Google Inc and ecommerce behemoth Amazon are among those in talks with the Tata Group to buy the data centre business of Tata Communications in a deal expected to fetch about Rs 4,261.4 crore to Rs 4,589.2 crore ($650-700 million).
• Foreign Investment Promotion Board gave approval to increase foreign investment limit in Den Networks from 49% to 74% of the paid up share capital.
• NHPC has restored Unit-4 of its Chutak power station in Jammu and Kashmir, which was shut down due to sudden increase in the water level in June.
• Government on Thursday fixed Rs 382 apiece as the floor price for 5% stake sale in Dredging Corporation of India on Friday, a move that is likely to fetch it Rs 54 crore.
• Vaibhav Global Says Class Action Lawsuit Filed Against Arm Liquidation Channel In US US Arm Allegedly Provided Misleading Estimated Retail Values To Consumers. Liquidation Channel Will Defend Against The Lawsuit Vigorously
• Institution Desk - Indian Economy- Quick View- Repo Rate Cut Likely, But Not Imminent: With Wholesale Price Index (WPI) contracting 4.1% in July 2015, market participants believe that a cut in repo rate by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is imminent. Nevertheless, as the RBI has made it clear that retail inflation is its policy instrument rather than WPI inflation, the focus should be on the former. Although retail inflation was way below consensus estimate, it is important to note that vegetable prices accounted for more than half of the total deceleration in headline inflation in July 2015. Excluding vegetable prices, retail inflation was 4.8% in July 2015 against reported inflation of 3.8%. This reminds us of early 2012 and late 2014 when an ephemeral, (but a sharp) decline in vegetable prices helped retail inflation ease significantly, only to move up after a couple of months. This is what makes us cautious. A reading of, say 3.5% for August 2015 should not make the RBI to cut rates immediately, just like a higher reading should not prompt it to hike rates. Consequently, we don’t expect a repo rate cut in September 2015, but its prospects in December 2015 have certainly risen.

 

• Results Announced

Caplin Point	Result has improved Sales is Rs 70 cr vs QoQ Rs 65.3 cr YoY Rs 48.0 cr EBITDA is Rs 19.5 cr vs QoQ Rs 15.4 cr YoY Rs 9.5 cr PAT is Rs 12.7 cr vs QoQ Rs 10.6 cr YoY Rs 7 cr
HCL Infosystems	Result improved Sales is Rs 1685.5 cr vs QoQ Rs 1376.1 cr YoY rs 1760.1 cr Loss at EBITDA level  is Rs 5.6 cr vs QoQ loss of Rs 16 cr YoY loss of Rs 21.7 cr Adj net loss of Rs 44.99cr vs QoQ loss of Rs 52.2 cr YoY  loss of Rs 62.65 cr

DAILY NIFTY OUTLOOK, 19TH AUG, 2015

Nifty August futures (8481.7)(-6.35):
It opened on a positive note and moved up firmly to test the high of 8531.95 but then slipped from there to test a low of 8437.25. It recovered in the latter half of the session to close the day with modest losses. It was an inside day since the range was encompassed within the range of the previous day and so today is likely to be a volatile session and the direction of the breakout will signal the direction of the trend. It has been consolidating after the big move on the 14th and so breakout in any direction will be significant. On the higher side, 8500 is the immediate resistance above which 8540 is the next supply zone and this must be taken out before fresh momentum can be expected. 8590-8612 must be taken out decisively before the bulls can feel comfortable again. On the lower side, 8470 is the immediate support below which 8460, 8434, 8387, 8372 are important levels expected to give some support. Below 8390, the initiative will move in the hands of the bears. A decisive breach of 8355 will signal further weakness.

• Resistance: 8496-8500, 8540, 8562, 8590, 8612, 8635, 8665, 8700-8710


• Support: 8470, 8462, 8434, 8400, 8370, 8355, 8305-8300, 8290

Bank Nifty August futures (18812.55) (-29.7):

Bank nifty future opened the session on a firm note and touched the intraday high in the opening session itself. There was a slow slide thereafter as it slipped to a low of 18614 in the post noon session but recovered quickly to close the day around the high with modest losses. The 18610 region has become an important support as nifty has bounced back from this region on two consecutive days and a decisive breach of this level will be significant and have bearish implication. The latter half of the session was more volatile. The undertone is mildly bearish as it has closed in the negative and it failed to make inroads into the 18900 region. Technically it was an inside day since its range was encompassed within the range of the previous day and a breakout is most likely today which will signal the direction of the trend for the next session. 18840, 18890 is the immediate resistance and a follow up buying should take it initially above 18920 and then above 19020 if the bullishness is to sustain. 18800-18760 is the immediate support below which 18714, 18660, 18600. A decisive breach of 18600 at this juncture, however, will signal weakness. 18520-18495 is the critical level and a breach of this zone will be significant and load the dice in favour of the bears.

• Resistance: 18840, 18890, 18920, 19000, 19030, 19064, 19140, 19195-19200, 19265


• Support: 18800, 18760, 18714, 18660, 18615, 18585, 18520, 18490, 18400, 18330, 18300, 18230, 18140, 18085, 17930

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DAILY MARKET AND SENTIMENTS OUTLOOK, 19TH AUG, 2015

Dear Customer,

 

Markets always tend to be interesting with something or the other happening all the time. Our Morning Mantra is released before the opening bell and it includes the market commentary along with Corporate & Global news for the day.

 

• U.S. stocks closed lower Tuesday following mixed earnings reports and upbeat new housing data.

Dow Jones	17511.3	-33.8	-0.19%
Dow Futures	17483.0	+1.0	+0.01%
Hangseng	23226.8	-248.1	-1.06%
Nikkie	20448.5	-106.0	-0.52%
SGX Nifty	8461.0	-13.0	-0.15%

 

• Asian stocks fell a fourth day as a deepening commodities selloff raised concern growth may be slowing in China, and as investors await clues from the Federal Reserve on the timing of a U.S. interest-rate increase.
• Market is expected to open on slightly negative note and likely to remain range bound during the day.
• ICICI Bank has acquired 8.89% stake in leading rose exporter Karuturi Global
• State Bank of India chairperson Arundhati Bhattacharya has said the bank is currently not looking at merging its associate banks, and is instead focusing on more important challenges.
• Power Grid has said the Rs 12,000-crore transmission line between Assam and Agra having 6,000-MW capacity will be commissioned by month-end.
• Rajesh Exports Ltd has bagged an export order worth Rs 1,170 crore from an UAE-based company for gold and diamond-studded jewellery and medallions.
• DLF sells four acre land parcel in Kochi for Rs 111 cr
• Infosys Bags Order From Fidelity Bank Of Nigeria
• Union Environment and Forests Minister Prakash Javadekar today said the government has approved an eco-sensitive zone around the Okhla Bird Sanctuary in Noida. In October 2013, the NGT had restrained New Okhla Industrial Development Authority from issuing completion certificates for structures falling within 10 km of Okhla bird sanctuary. DLF ’s Mall of India in Noida and 4 other realty projects fall within this radius. Approximately  20,000 flats of Jaypee Infra also fell within the radius.
• Contesting a Rs 10,247-crore tax demand raised on its eight-year old internal business recognition, British oil explorer Cairn Energy has said it will seek damages from the government for the loss in value of its holdings suffered because of the notice.
• The government has scrapped the privatisation of four major airports - those at Chennai, Kolkata, Jaipur and Ahmedabad. While the airports at Chennai and Kolkata will continue to remain under the complete control of the Airports Authority of India (AAI), fresh bids for the Jaipur and Ahmedabad airports will be invited from private players. These bids, however, would only be for operation and maintenance contracts,

DAILY NIFTY OUTLOOK, 18TH AUG, 2015

Nifty August futures (8488.05)(-54.65):
It was a volatile opening for Nifty future as it rallied to an intraday high of 8540.55 after a weak open and slipped to a low of 8411 in the opening session itself. Neither did it cross the initial high posted in subsequent rallies nor did it breach the low on sell offs. It closed in the negative below the 8500 level, off the high and low of the day. Some consolidation in the 8440-8530 region was seen after the big move on the previous day before the next trending move. On the higher side, 8500 is the immediate resistance above which 8540 is the next supply zone and this must be taken out before fresh momentum can be expected. 8590-8612 must be taken out decisively before the bulls can feel comfortable again. On the lower side, 8475 is the immediate support below which 8460, 8410, 8387, 8372 are important levels expected to give some support. Below 8400, the initiative will move in the hands of the bears. A decisive breach of 8370 will signal further weakness.

• Resistance: 8496-8500, 8540, 8562, 8590, 8612, 8635, 8665, 8700-8710


• Support: 8475, 8462, 8410, 8400, 8370, 8355, 8305-8300, 8290

Bank Nifty August futures (18842.25) (+51.1):

It was a volatile opening for Bank nifty future as it touched the high and low of the day in the opening session itself. It opened on a firm note and initially rallied to a high of 18939.4 and dropped to a low of 18611.2 soon after on selling pressure. It recovered from there and turned volatile as it moved between the range set by the opening session and though it rallied to a high of 18913 in the closing session, it failed to cross the intraday high. Profit taking in that region pushed it down to sub 18900 levels in the closing. What needs to be observed is how things pan out this week. Though it has given a positive closing, it failed to make inroads into the 19000 region or close above 18900. A follow up buying should take it above 19020 if the bullishness is to sustain. A fall below 18500, however, will signal weakness. 18910 is the immediate resistance but the important supply zone is around 18990-19020 and this zone needs to be taken out decisively for fresh momentum. On the lower side, 18800-18785 is the immediate support below which 18707, 18654, 18596 and 18520 are important levels but 18515-18490 is the critical level and a breach of this zone will be significant.

• Resistance: 18890, 18920, 19000, 19064, 19140, 19195-19200, 19265


• Support: 18800-18785, 18707-18690, 18654, 18596, 18515-18490, 18400, 18350, 18300, 18210, 18140, 18085, 17930

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