Friday, May 15, 2015

MARKET OUTLOOK, 15TH MAY , 2015

Dear Customer,
 
Markets always tend to be interesting with something or the other happening all the time. Our Morning Mantra is released before the opening bell and it includes the market commentary along with Corporate & Global news for the day.
 
  • U.S. stocks moved broadly higher on Thursday amid a weaker dollar, as the S&P Composite index reached an all-time closing high.
Dow Jones
18252.2
+191.75
+1.06%
Dow Futures
18202.0
+187.00
+1.04%
Hangseng
27390.3
+103.7
+0.38%
Nikkie
19669.9
+99.7
+0.51%
SGX Nifty
8246.0
+9.50
+0.12%
 
  • Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index heading for its first weekly advance in three weeks, after the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rallied to a record. Healthcare and material shares led gains.
  • Market is expected to open on positive note and likely to advance during the day.
  • Tata steel will take  Impairment of rs.5000cr of Europe Assets in Q4
 
  • Results Announced
Jubilant Foods - Insti
  • Jubilant FoodWorks reported a 6.6% SSG (same-store sales growth) in 4QFY15, the second consecutive quarter of healthy SSG after posting a 1.9% growth in 3QFY15. This is more remarkable coming at a time when its peers are still struggling. Yum Brands reported a double-digit negative SSG for December as well as March quarters while Westlife Development posted a negative 2.6% SSG for the second-half of FY15. Sales, EBITDA and PAT each grew between 25-26% YoY, above our as well as Bloomberg consensus estimates. SSG of Jubilant FoodWorks was impressive and we  expect 9%, 16% and 20% SSG for the next three years.  First time dividend payout, was a big surprise and two years ahead of our estimate. Store expansion as well as guidance was on track and this indicates the management’s confidence on business prospects. Scope for operating leverage and cash flow generation remains huge once the segment emerges out of slowdown. We expect EPS to rise 3.5x over FY15-FY18E and RoE and RoCE to more than double over this period to 41% and 39%, respectively, in FY18E. We have retained target multiples of 49x/ 40x FY17E/FY18E earnings, respectively. These are not only well below historical average, but given the tremendous growth prospects are richly deserved. Based on FY17E EPS, we have arrived at a TP of Rs1,924 (Rs1,891earlier). Over a two-year period, there is likely to be an upside of 49% with a TP of Rs2,338. Retain BUY.
IMFA
  • Good result
  • Sales is Rs 384.6 cr vs QoQ sales of Rs 278.8cr and YoY sales of Rs 305.7 cr.
  • EBIDTA is Rs 81.7 cr vs QoQ Rs 41.6 cr and YoY Rs 64.4 cr.
  • PAT is Rs 13.1 cr vs QoQ net loss of Rs 3.7 cr and YoY PAT of Rs 3.9 cr. PAT includes exceptional gains of Rs6.2, which boosted PAT during the quarter.
Subex
  • Good result
  • Sales is Rs 112.2 cr vs QoQ sales of Rs 92 cr and YoY sales of Rs 85.4 cr.
  • EBIDTA is Rs 31.6 cr vs QoQ Rs 25.3 cr and YoY Rs18.0  cr.
  • PAT is Rs 14.4 cr vs QoQ  Rs 6.7cr and YoY loss of Rs 12.2 cr.
  • However Subex Board approved the reset of conversion price of the FCCB III which are convertible into equity shares of the Company, from Rs. 22.79 to Rs. 13.00. As a result of the reset of conversion price, subject to necessary approvals, the said bonds as currently outstanding of face value of US $ 76.53 million would potentially be converted into 32,99,88,530 shares at an exchange rate of Rs. 56.05.Negative
Mannapuram Finance
  • Result below expectation
  • NII came at 275 vs exp 300cr qoq 289cr and yoy 231cr
  • Profit before provision came at Rs.114cr vs qoq 124cr yoy 56cr
  • PAT came at Rs.70cr vs exp Rs.78cr qoq81cr and yoy 32cr
Arvind - Insti
  • With 17.2%/2.9% growth in Brands & Retail (B&R)/textile divisions, respectively, Arvind posted a mere 8.4% revenue growth in 4QFY15 to Rs20,405mn, 1%/2.3% below our/Bloomberg  estimates, respectively.  Weak demand and lower cotton prices along with a 8.5% denim volume decline and a 4.2% QoQ area reduction in brands division and restructuring of Megamart impacted textile and B&R divisions’ revenue. With lower margin of textile and B&R division, operating margin remained flat at 12.7%, 78bps below our estimate. Following healthy other income, adjusted net profit of Rs967mn was only 3.3% below our estimate.
Indian Bank
  • In line with expectation
  • Net interest income is Rs1107.9 cr vs QoQ net interest income of Rs 1105.0 cr and YoY  net interest income of Rs 1077.7cr.
  • Pre  provision profit is Rs817.2  cr vs QoQ Rs 794.5 cr and YoY Rs 703.4 cr.
  • PAT is Rs206.1   cr vs QoQ  of Rs 277.5 cr and YoY  Rs 271.3 cr.
  • Gross NPAs and Net NPA were  Rs5670.4    cr and Rs3146.9   cr respectively Vs QoQ Rs5461.0 crs / Rs 3235.1 crs. Gross NPAs and Net NPA ratio stand 4.4% and  2.5% respectively. Calculated PCR increased 374bps QoQ to44.5%.
OBC
  • Below Expectation with better than expected asset quality 
  • Net interest income is Rs1297.7 cr vs QoQ net interest income of Rs 1297.5 cr and YoY  net interest income of Rs 1308.7cr.
  • Pre  provision profit is Rs1215.7  cr vs QoQ Rs 1014.8 cr and YoY Rs 1383.7 cr.
  • Net loss is Rs178.4   cr vs QoQ  of Rs 156.9 cr and YoY  Rs 310.3 cr. Reported Net loss includes exceptional loss of Rs280.4 cr.
  • Gross NPAs and Net NPA were  Rs7666.2    cr and Rs4816.2   cr respectively Vs QoQ Rs7669.2crs / Rs 5080.4 crs. Gross NPAs and Net NPA ratio stand 5.2% and  3.3% respectively. Calculated PCR increased 341bps QoQ to37.2%.
DB Corp
  • Result is below expectations. Sales is Rs 477.5 cr vs exp of Rs 498.3 cr. QoQ Rs 547.8 cr YoY Rs 446.8 cr. EBITDA is Rs 119.9 cr vs exp of Rs 137.8 cr. QoQ Rs 184.7 cr YoY Rs 446.8 cr. PAT is Rs 64 cr vs exp of Rs 81.6 cr. QoQ Rs 105 cr YoY Rs 75.9 cr
Castrol India
  • Below Expectation
  • Sales is Rs 799.2 cr vs QoQ sales of Rs 855.9 cr and YoY sales of Rs 815.1 cr.
  • EBIDTA is Rs 190.7 cr vs QoQ Rs 207 cr and YoY Rs 146 cr.
  • PAT is Rs 146.7 cr vs QoQ Rs 132 cr and YoY Rs 100.2 cr.
MCX
  • Total operating revenues is Rs 58.9 cr vs QoQ Rs 77.0 cr and YoY  Rs 97.0 cr.
  • Profit before tax is Rs 65.9 cr vs QoQ Rs 38.0 cr and YoY Rs 63.0 cr.
  • PAT is Rs49.3 cr vs QoQ Rs 23.0 cr and YoY  of Rs 43.8 cr.
Aditya Birla Nuvo
  • Good result 
  • Consolidated Sales is Rs 6957.4 cr vs QoQ sales of Rs 6539.3 cr and YoY sales of Rs 7049.9 cr.
  • EBIDTA is Rs 1394.8 cr vs QoQ Rs 1391.25 cr and YoY Rs 1167.1 cr.
  • PAT is Rs 331.0 cr vs QoQ Rs 368.1 cr and YoY Rs 176.1 cr.
Hindustan Media Venture
  • Above Expectation
  • Sales is Rs 199.3 cr vs QoQ sales of Rs 205.3 cr and YoY sales of Rs 180.7 cr.
  • EBIDTA is Rs 44.4 cr vs QoQ Rs 40.0 cr and YoY Rs 33.5 cr.
  • PAT is Rs 38.9 cr vs QoQ Rs 36.6 cr and YoY Rs 27.2 cr.
Sharon Bio Medical
  • Posted good result with decline in operating losses by Rs73.2 cr.
  • Adjusted PAT stands at  47.9 vs QoQ net loss of  92.1 vs YoY PAT of  19.5.
NCC
  • Good result 
  • Consolidated Sales is Rs 2480.5 cr vs QoQ sales of Rs 2648.0 cr and YoY sales of Rs 2286.3 cr.
  • EBIDTA is Rs 264.7 cr vs QoQ Rs 275.2 cr and YoY Rs 193.6 cr.
  • PAT is Rs 51.9 cr vs QoQ Rs 25.6 cr and YoY Rs 2.9 cr.
Monsanto
  • Result is not good.
  • Sales is Rs 69.3 cr vs QoQ Rs 133.4 cr YoY Rs 74.9 cr.
  • The company reported loss at EBITDA levels of Rs 10.4 cr (due to higher inventory) vs QoQ profit of Rs 45.8 cr and Yoy profit of Rs 2.5 cr.
  • Net loss is Rs 8.2 cr vs QoQ profit of Rs 48.3 cr and YoY loss of Rs 6 cr (had exceptional loss of Rs 6.9 cr, hence adjusted profit was Rs 0.8 cr).
  • The stock is trading at 30x FY16E earnings.
VIP Industries
  • Result is in-line.
  • Sales is Rs 244.5 cr vs exp of Rs 251.3 cr. QoQ Rs 252.1 cr YoY Rs 226.6 cr.
  • EBITDA is Rs 13.7 cr vs exp of Rs 14.8 cr. QoQ Rs 9.3 cr YoY Rs 13.5 cr.
  • PAT is Rs 8.8 cr vs exp of Rs 8.0 cr. QoQ Rs 8.5 cr YoY Rs 4.4 cr. (adjusted)
Amtek India
  • Below Expectation (Sharp drop in EBIDTA margins -543 Y-o-Y & 764bps QoQ)
  • Sales is Rs 716.7 cr vs QoQ sales of Rs 772.6 cr and YoY sales of Rs 704.8 cr.
  • EBIDTA is Rs 200.8 cr vs QoQ Rs 275.5 cr and YoY Rs 235.7 cr.
  • PAT is Rs 3.4 cr vs QoQ Rs 54.9 cr and YoY Rs 62.7 cr.
Balkrishna Industries
  • Balkrishna Ind result not good.
  • Sales came at 888cr vs exp 1030cr qoq 949cr yoy 1030cr
  • EBITDA excluding forex gain came at 140cr vs exp 277cr qoq 203cr yoy 306cr because of forex gain of Rs.151cr
  • PAT came at 154cr vs exp 138cr qoq 130cr yoy 154cr.
GSFC
  • Below expectation, sharp decline in operating margins
  • Sales is Rs 1290.4 cr vs QoQ sales of Rs 1309.4 cr and YoY sales of Rs 1518.1 cr.
  • EBIDTA is Rs 102.2 cr vs QoQ Rs 141.1 cr and YoY Rs 197.7 cr.
  • PAT is Rs64.5 cr vs QoQ Rs 103.5 cr and YoY Rs 134.1 cr.
Grindwell Norton
  • In Line with expectation
  • Sales is Rs 295.6 cr vs QoQ sales of Rs 277.5 cr and YoY sales of Rs 245.5 cr.
  • EBIDTA is Rs 48.2 cr vs QoQ Rs 44.3 cr and YoY Rs 38.1 cr.
  • PAT is Rs27.2 cr vs QoQ Rs 25.4 cr and YoY Rs 23.9 cr.
JK Tyre
  • In line with expectation  
  • Sales is Rs 1789.5 cr vs QoQ sales of Rs 1825.8 cr and YoY sales of Rs 1895.6 cr.
  • EBIDTA is Rs 252.2 cr vs QoQ Rs 253.6 cr and YoY Rs 192.0 cr.
  • Adjusted PAT is Rs105.6 cr vs QoQ Rs 121.8 cr and YoY Rs 58 cr.
Dhunseri Petrochem
  • Good result
  • Sales is Rs 636.6 cr vs QoQ sales of Rs 628.4 cr and YoY sales of Rs 958.5 cr.
  • EBIDTA is Rs 47.0 cr vs QoQ Rs 19.3 cr and YoY operating loss of Rs 1.7 cr.
  • Normalized PAT (Ex Forex impact) is Rs 21.2 cr vs QoQ Rs 7.2 cr and YoY net loss of Rs 15.7 cr.
Graphite India
  • Below expectation, sharp decline in operating margins
  • Sales is Rs 429.2 cr vs QoQ sales of Rs 310.6 cr and YoY sales of Rs 475.2 cr.
  • EBIDTA is Rs 36.1 cr vs QoQ Rs 41.7cr and YoY Rs 68.1 cr.
  • Adjusted PAT is Rs 19.8 cr vs QoQ Rs 20.4 cr and YoY Rs 44.9 cr.
Prism Cements
  • Result is declining and below expectations
  • Sales is Rs 1527.5 cr vs exp of Rs 1656.8cr. QoQ sales of Rs 1328.3 cr and YoY sales of Rs 1519 cr.
  • EBIDTA is Rs 83.8 cr vs exp of Rs 110.5 cr. QoQ Rs 36.6 cr and YoY Rs 118.8 cr.
  • Adj net loss is Rs 0.23 cr (exceptioanl gain of Rs 62.12 cr) vs exp profit of Rs 11 cr QoQ  loss of Rs 40.7 cr and YoY profit of Rs 11 cr.
Bank of Mahrashtra
  • Result is Ok. Asset quality improved sequentially.
  • Net interest income is Rs971.2 cr vs QoQ net interest income of Rs 997.8 cr and YoY  net interest income of Rs 868.7cr.
  • Pre  provision profit is Rs676.0  cr vs QoQ Rs 619.3 cr and YoY Rs 467.2 cr.
  • PAT is Rs112.7   cr vs QoQ  of Rs 57.2 cr and YoY  Rs 56.9 cr.
  • Gross NPAs and Net NPA were  Rs6402.1    cr and Rs4126.6   cr respectively Vs QoQ Rs6186.7 crs / Rs 4126.6 crs. Gross NPAs and Net NPA ratio stand 6.3% and  4.2% respectively. Calculated PCR increased 448bps QoQ to 35.5%.
Bharat Immunology
  • Result is not good
Welspun Syntax
  • Result has improved
Kokuyu Camlin
  • Below expectation   
  • Sales is Rs 162.9 cr vs QoQ sales of Rs 108.9 cr and YoY sales of Rs 139.4 cr.
  • EBIDTA is Rs 7.3 cr vs QoQ Rs 3.5 cr and YoY Rs 2.5 cr.
  • Adjusted PAT is Rs4.3 cr vs QoQ Rs 0.2 cr and YoY net loss of Rs 4.3 cr.
HEG
  • Below expectation   
  • Sales is Rs 287.3 cr vs QoQ sales of Rs 278.5 cr and YoY sales of Rs 449.5 cr.
  • EBIDTA is Rs 36.0 cr vs QoQ Rs 51.3 cr and YoY Rs 77.7 cr.
  • PAT is Rs4.0 cr vs QoQ Rs 10.4 cr and YoY Rs 46.6 cr.
PC Jeweller
  • Result is ok
  • Sales is Rs 2020.2 cr vs QoQ sales of Rs 1821.7 cr and YoY sales of Rs 1536.1 cr.
  • EBIDTA is Rs 206.6.9 cr vs QoQ Rs 203.8 cr and YoY Rs 159.8 cr.
  • PAT is Rs 120.1 cr (higher income boosted PAT) vs QoQ  Rs 109.3 cr and YoY Rs 83.6 cr.
Subros
  • Good is declining
  • Sales is Rs 305.4 cr vs QoQ sales of Rs 278.2 cr and YoY sales of Rs 324.0 cr.
  • EBIDTA is Rs 38.9 cr vs QoQ Rs 21.5 cr and YoY Rs 45.2 cr.
  • PAT is Rs 7.4 cr vs QoQ  Rs 3.9 cr and YoY Rs 12.5 cr.
Zydus Wellness
  • Result is below expectations
  • Sales is Rs 97.2 cr vs exp of Rs 115.7 cr. QoQ is Rs 13.5 cr YoY Rs 101.1 cr
  • EBITDA is Rs 13.7 cr vs exp of Rs 26.4 cr. QoQ Rs 29.5 cr YoY Rs 20.1 cr.
  • PAT is Rs 20.2 cr vs exp of rs 27.1 cr. QOQ Rs 44.4 cr YoY Rs 22.3 cr.
  • The stock is trading at Rs 32.6x on FY16E earnings
Ahmednagar Forging
  • Below Expectation
  • Sales is Rs 556.9 cr vs QoQ sales of Rs 635.6 cr and YoY sales of Rs 508.6 cr.
  • EBIDTA is Rs 124.3 cr vs QoQ Rs 167.7 cr and YoY Rs 123.2 cr.
  • Net loss is Rs 6.8 cr vs QoQ PAT of Rs 37.5 cr and YoY PAT of Rs 35.5 cr. Higher interest expense has increased 36.5% QoQ to Rs87.2 cr, dragged net earnings. 
Amtek Auto
  • Below Expectation
  • Sales is Rs 900.1 cr vs QoQ sales of Rs 1035.4 cr and YoY sales of Rs 910.4 cr.
  • EBIDTA is Rs 255.0 cr vs QoQ Rs 351.6 cr and YoY Rs 312.3 cr.
  • Adjusted Net loss is Rs 50.4 cr vs QoQ PAT of Rs 70.8 cr and YoY PAT of Rs 84.9 cr. There was an exceptional income of Rs180.2 cr, which boosted reported net earnings.
 
  • Result to be Announced (PAT Rs cr)
15-May
Mar'14
Dec'14
Expectation
NB Insti
Bharat Bijlee Ltd.
2.3
-4.1
na
na
BF Utilities Ltd.
-2.6
-2.7
na
na
Cadila Healthcare Ltd.
239.2
281.9
306.0
301.4
Cox & Kings (India) Ltd.
-46.2
-13.9
17.7
na
Dena Bank
187.3
76.6
86.1
na
Edelweiss Financial Services Ltd.
60.7
82.9
88.1
na
Future Consumer Enterprise Ltd.
-30.8
-21.5
na
na
HDIL
113.5
67.3
83.9
na
HT Media Ltd.
34.8
64.0
48.3
na
IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd.
117.4
129.1
116.6
na
Jain Irrigation Systems Ltd.
75.3
-39.7
57.7
na
JK Lakshmi Cement Ltd.
52.9
18.5
48.4
na
JSW Steel Ltd.
482.8
328.9
180.1
na
Morepen Laboratories Ltd.
-3.4
3.0
na
na
Nestle India Ltd.
259.2
326.4
333.8
322
Puravankara Projects Ltd.
25.7
32.6
23.4
na
Ruby Mills Ltd.
33.7
8.6
34.8
na
Schneider Electric Infrastructure Ltd.
-35.8
1.6
na
na
Sona Koyo Steering Systems Ltd.
13.8
7.1
na
na
STI India Ltd.
-2.0
-4.0
na
na
Take Solutions Ltd.
12.9
16.4
na
na
Tata Coffee Ltd.
16.3
18.3
21.2
na
Torrent Pharmaceuticals Ltd.
244.0
167.0
148.2
155.7
TRF Ltd.
24.2
20.6
na
na
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